Although ordinarily a big news event for investors, today’s interest rate decision by the Fed has been largely overshadowed this week by a variety of other stories. Ongoing concern surrounding the pig flu outbreak and investor jitters over big bank "stress tests", not to mention the upcoming assessment of the Obama administration’s first 100 days in office, has meant the Fed’s interest rate decision at 19.15 BST this evening has taken a back seat.
CaxtonFX analysts believe the Fed will keep interest rates on hold at the current range of 0% - 0.25% because, since their last meeting in March, there has been a mini-revival in equity markets. The central bank's decision to pump $1.2 trillion into the American economy by buying government debt has gone some way to boost lending, and is one of the reasons why many American banks were able to report better-than-expected first quarter results earlier this month. As a result, we believe this month’s meeting is more likely to be used to examine the effectiveness of policies already in place, rather than to announce any further rate cuts or new initiatives.
Wednesday 29 April 2009
Pound continues to be undermined by swine flu outbreak
The pound weakened over a cent against the euro yesterday, as concerns over the severity of swine flu hit UK equity markets. The FTSE 100 closed down 70.61 points yesterday, or 1.7%, as travel, leisure and holiday stocks in particular took a pounding. Having suffered significant falls on Monday, British Airways, Carnival, Thomas Cook and TUI Travel all endured further losses yesterday, dropping between 1.7% and 5.4%. The pound started the day up against the euro, however, as better-than-expected retail survey results released by the Confederation of British Industry gave investors hope that a recovery may be underway. Their Distributive Trades Survey went positive for the first time this year, rising to +3 in April from -44 in March. The reading was the highest since January 2008 and was much better than the -40 many analysts were predicting, although they did admit the figures may be slightly skewed because of later Easter weekend this year. Also spurring the pound’s early gains yesterday was the news of strong demand at a UK gilt auction, the first since UK Chancellor Alistair Darling’s announcement last week that issuance would reach a record high of £220 billion for the fiscal year 2009/10.
However, sterling’s early gains were eventually wiped out as continued speculation surrounding the severity of the swine flu outbreak, as well as its potential global economic impact, weighed on equity markets. With Britain’s economy so dependent on banking and financial services, economists’ estimates that the world could lose up to $3 trillion in lost output should the outbreak turn into something more serious, would spell disaster for the country’s economic recovery. As a result, the euro strengthened further against the pound throughout yesterday afternoon, as the first case of the virus was confirmed in the UK and the death toll in Mexico rose to over 150.
In early trading today, the pound has recovered some of the losses it suffered yesterday, as speculation about how the European Central Bank intends to get the eurozone out of recession at their next policy meeting continued. An interest rate cut to 1% now appears increasingly likely, but whether the central bank intends to embark on a quantitative easing plan like the Fed and the Bank of England remains to be seen.
There are a few important pieces of data due in the eurozone this morning, with April’s Economic, Consumer and Industrial Confidence data all due at 10.00 BST from the European Monetary Union. The EMU is also set to release its Year-on-Year M3 data for March at the same time, a measure of the money supply released by the ECB.
However, sterling’s early gains were eventually wiped out as continued speculation surrounding the severity of the swine flu outbreak, as well as its potential global economic impact, weighed on equity markets. With Britain’s economy so dependent on banking and financial services, economists’ estimates that the world could lose up to $3 trillion in lost output should the outbreak turn into something more serious, would spell disaster for the country’s economic recovery. As a result, the euro strengthened further against the pound throughout yesterday afternoon, as the first case of the virus was confirmed in the UK and the death toll in Mexico rose to over 150.
In early trading today, the pound has recovered some of the losses it suffered yesterday, as speculation about how the European Central Bank intends to get the eurozone out of recession at their next policy meeting continued. An interest rate cut to 1% now appears increasingly likely, but whether the central bank intends to embark on a quantitative easing plan like the Fed and the Bank of England remains to be seen.
There are a few important pieces of data due in the eurozone this morning, with April’s Economic, Consumer and Industrial Confidence data all due at 10.00 BST from the European Monetary Union. The EMU is also set to release its Year-on-Year M3 data for March at the same time, a measure of the money supply released by the ECB.
Pound finishes slightly down against the US dollar
The pound weakened slightly against the dollar yesterday, as concern about the severity of the swine flu outbreak reduced investor risk appetite. Investor jitters over the potential economic impact of a global pandemic were exacerbated yesterday morning following comments by the deputy chief of the World Health Organisation, Keiji Fukuda, who said the virus could no longer be contained and countries should focus on mitigating its effects. His remarks resulted in widespread falls in European equity markets, with travel, holiday and leisure stocks all taking a particular hit. The news that holiday operators Thomson and First Choice have cancelled all their flights to Mexico due to the outbreak only increased investor appetite for safe-haven currencies like the dollar. This risk aversion was further aided by concerns about the US banking sector’s capital needs, as an article in The Wall Street Journal claimed that Citigroup and Bank of America may need to raise more capital based on early results of government “stress tests” on banks. The formal results of the tests are not due until May 4th, however early indications show the banks need to fill capital shortfalls so as not to rely on any more government funds. Both Bank of America and Citigroup have already received $45 billion bailouts from the US taxpayer, and could require more according to preliminary results of the tests. A steady stream of dire financial news from the banking sector has battered the pound in recent months, given the economy’s dependence on financial services, and consequently the possibility that more bad news may be round the corner meant investors looked to sell sterling to reduce risk. Elsewhere, news that BP’s first quarter profits fell by 62% to £1.64 billion because of low oil prices did little to ease risk aversion.
Later in the day, data released in the US showing prices of single-family homes dropped by 18.6% in February from a year ago received mixed reactions from the market. Although the figure remains negative, it did indicate that the pace of decline may have slowed and therefore the US property market could be bottoming out. The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller Home Price Index also showed the composite index of 20 metropolitan areas fell 2.2% in February from the previous month. This news induced a brief rally for the pound, aided by better-than-expected Consumer Confidence data released by the Conference Board in the US. April’s figure of 39.2 was much better than the 29.8 analysts were predicting and also showed a positive improvement on the 26.9 registered in March. Sterling’s afternoon recovery was also aided by much better-than-expected UK retail sales figures released by the Confederation of British Industry. Its Distributive Trades Survey showed a rise to +3 in April from -44 in March, the first positive reading in a year and much better than the -40 analysts had predicted. The figure gave investors renewed hope that the UK may be tentatively coming out of recession, although the CBI did admit the figures could be slightly misleading because of a later Easter weekend this year.
Sterling’s gains were eventually wiped out late in the day, however, as news that the swine flu virus had spread as far afield as Israel and New Zealand weighed on equity markets. The FTSE 100 closed the day down 1.7% at 4096.4, with the pound finishing slightly down against the dollar at $1.4632.
There are some very important pieces of data out in the US today. At 13.30 BST, annualised American GDP data is released, whilst at 19.15 BST the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision for April is due. Also at that time, The Federal Open Market Committee’s Minutes will be released to the market, with investors eyeing them closely to try and determine where future US interest rate policy is headed. CaxtonFX analysts predict the Fed will not change interest rates from their current 0.25% level, however they may announce an expansion of their quantitative easing program.
Later in the day, data released in the US showing prices of single-family homes dropped by 18.6% in February from a year ago received mixed reactions from the market. Although the figure remains negative, it did indicate that the pace of decline may have slowed and therefore the US property market could be bottoming out. The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller Home Price Index also showed the composite index of 20 metropolitan areas fell 2.2% in February from the previous month. This news induced a brief rally for the pound, aided by better-than-expected Consumer Confidence data released by the Conference Board in the US. April’s figure of 39.2 was much better than the 29.8 analysts were predicting and also showed a positive improvement on the 26.9 registered in March. Sterling’s afternoon recovery was also aided by much better-than-expected UK retail sales figures released by the Confederation of British Industry. Its Distributive Trades Survey showed a rise to +3 in April from -44 in March, the first positive reading in a year and much better than the -40 analysts had predicted. The figure gave investors renewed hope that the UK may be tentatively coming out of recession, although the CBI did admit the figures could be slightly misleading because of a later Easter weekend this year.
Sterling’s gains were eventually wiped out late in the day, however, as news that the swine flu virus had spread as far afield as Israel and New Zealand weighed on equity markets. The FTSE 100 closed the day down 1.7% at 4096.4, with the pound finishing slightly down against the dollar at $1.4632.
There are some very important pieces of data out in the US today. At 13.30 BST, annualised American GDP data is released, whilst at 19.15 BST the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision for April is due. Also at that time, The Federal Open Market Committee’s Minutes will be released to the market, with investors eyeing them closely to try and determine where future US interest rate policy is headed. CaxtonFX analysts predict the Fed will not change interest rates from their current 0.25% level, however they may announce an expansion of their quantitative easing program.
US dollar weakens as better consumer confidence data helps risk appetite
The dollar weakened against the euro yesterday due to a better than expected consumer confidence report and more positive house price data. This resulted in an increase in investors’ risk appetite, thus weakening the dollar as the main safe haven currency. The euro benefited from US data showing a surprise jump in consumer confidence in April, in the most positive reading of the US Conference Board index since last November. The index, based on a representative sample of 5,000 US households, leapt to 39.2, up from an amended 26.9 in March. Most analysts had predicted a more modest rise to 29.9. Other data also showed an easing of the pace of decline in home prices in major US cities in February. The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller report was consistent with other data suggesting stabilisation in the US housing market after two horrific years.
The euro also rose on the back of comments made by ECB board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, who indicated that quantitative easing measures have not been conclusively determined as of yet, and it may be that the ECB only cuts interest rates by 25 basis points at their next meeting on May 7, as opposed to also introducing non conventional measures to combat the recession.
Nevertheless, the dollar’s losses were limited due to continuing fears regarding the global outbreak of swine flu. Moody’s stated yesterday that the global macroeconomic impact of the flu could reduce global GDP by £225.6bn and the outbreak also adversely affected the FTSE 100, which closed down 1.7 percent at 40996.4. Additionally, concerns have arisen regarding stress tests for major US banks. It was leaked ahead of the official release that Citigroup and Bank of America are likely to be forced to boost their capital levels in advance of the stress tests, so a further bailout may be required. The tests themselves are due to be announced on May 4 and are designed to conclude whether banks can withstand further grim economic activity without collapsing.
Investors are now awaiting the outcome of a two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve this evening, where monetary policymakers are expected to keep boosting the supply of cheap credit to the ailing US economy since slashing its base interest rate to virtually zero. Also on the US calendar is the government's first estimate of gross domestic product for the first quarter, expected to show an annualised 4.9 per cent contraction after the fourth-quarter drop of 6.3 per cent.
Other announcements taking place in the US today include MBA Mortgage Appplications. In the eurozone economic confidence, consumer confidence and industrial confidence will be released today.
The euro also rose on the back of comments made by ECB board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, who indicated that quantitative easing measures have not been conclusively determined as of yet, and it may be that the ECB only cuts interest rates by 25 basis points at their next meeting on May 7, as opposed to also introducing non conventional measures to combat the recession.
Nevertheless, the dollar’s losses were limited due to continuing fears regarding the global outbreak of swine flu. Moody’s stated yesterday that the global macroeconomic impact of the flu could reduce global GDP by £225.6bn and the outbreak also adversely affected the FTSE 100, which closed down 1.7 percent at 40996.4. Additionally, concerns have arisen regarding stress tests for major US banks. It was leaked ahead of the official release that Citigroup and Bank of America are likely to be forced to boost their capital levels in advance of the stress tests, so a further bailout may be required. The tests themselves are due to be announced on May 4 and are designed to conclude whether banks can withstand further grim economic activity without collapsing.
Investors are now awaiting the outcome of a two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve this evening, where monetary policymakers are expected to keep boosting the supply of cheap credit to the ailing US economy since slashing its base interest rate to virtually zero. Also on the US calendar is the government's first estimate of gross domestic product for the first quarter, expected to show an annualised 4.9 per cent contraction after the fourth-quarter drop of 6.3 per cent.
Other announcements taking place in the US today include MBA Mortgage Appplications. In the eurozone economic confidence, consumer confidence and industrial confidence will be released today.
New Zealand dollar weakens ahead of RBNZ rate decision
The New Zealand dollar weakened against the aussie and the pound yesterday, as investors brace for an interest rate cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand at this evening's meeting. The market is currently pricing in a 50 basis point cut to 2.5%, with possible further deductions to follow later in the year.
Australian dollar consolidates
The Australian dollar consolidated from recent weakness against sterling yesterday, after offshore data was not as worse as forecast. However, investor sentiment remains fragile, with the Swine flu and continuing concerns over the banking sector making investors reluctant to take on higher risk currencies such as the aussie. Commodity prices also remain weak, which is likely to weigh on the aussie. Markets are likely to wait and see what the consequences of the Swine flu are, and whether it will be upgraded to a pandemic; this would likely cause further risk aversion, but if the virus is contained risk aversion will probably fade quite rapidly.
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