A successful Spanish bond auction helped ease some concerns about the debt crisis plaguing the eurozone’s most indebted nations and finally gave the market some interest and direction.
The euro hit a one month high against the Swiss franc and regained some ground against most of its counterparts following the news. News last night that Germany’s principal, Angela Merkel, may be willing to extend the EU’s relief fund helped to put investors mind at ease and the bond auction went through without a problem. Both the Portuguese and Spanish auctions were concerns at the start of the week, helping to suppress the single currency. However, with the US dollar’s weakness late in the session yesterday and the news of the Iberian sales going well, the 17 nation currency has appreciated to €1.19 and €1.33 against the pound and greenback respectively.
The outlook for EUR remains to the downside in the medium term however. With no plan set in stone and Southern Europe’s debt snowballing, one set of bullish data from the US could turn everything back on it head.
In other news, Timothy Geithner once again called for the People’s Bank of China to allow the yuan to appreciate. Its artificially low value gives China an advantage over the rest of the export market and makes American goods less competitive. However, it seems highly unlikely that the world’s second largest economy would give up such a strong opportunity to hunt down the ailing world ‘no 1.’
Should China do what is best for them or the world economy? To comment on this or any part of the blog please write a comment below.
Tom Hampton
Analyst – Caxton FX
For the latest forex news and views, follow us on twitter @caxtonfx and sign up to our daily report.
Showing posts with label Falling Pound. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Falling Pound. Show all posts
Thursday, 13 January 2011
Thursday, 6 January 2011
The euro’s slide continues
Despite disappointing data from both the UK and US, the euro has not been able to make up any lost ground.
Sterling did take a slight knock this morning as the UK’s Services PMI figure came in at 49.7, well below the expected result of 52.9. However, any losses were soon regained and the pound hit an intraday high of €1.1855 against the single currency.
Aside from some slightly disappointing employment data, the greenback continues to climb. The euro is now just a shade away from collapsing below $1.30 and who would bet against the move coming as early as tomorrow?
The 17 nation currency continues to go from bad to worse. What would normally be bullish news, a successful Portuguese bond auction, turned sour as the premium Portugal will have to repay went up by well over 100 points. The news that the EU is potentially going to issue Europe wide bonds (rather than country specific) smells horribly like the actions bankers took in combining securities that got the world in this mess in the first place. Next week Italy and Spain will both have their first bond auctions of 2011. It will be very interesting to see what premium they will have to pay to secure finance. All-in-all, this storyline has legs and will dominate most of 2011.
In other news, well not that far from the apple tree, China’s shopping spree for entire nations (behind FT paywall) continues as they pledge to buy €6billion of Spanish debt. This is being viewed as a simple engagement to try to open up foreign markets to Chinese exports. However, with their cheaper yet comparable products, ownership of foreign government debt, vast currency and commodity reserves, could this be just another move to knock America from the top of global economics?
Tom Hampton
Analyst – Caxton FX
For the latest forex news and views, follow us on twitter @caxtonfx and sign up to our daily report.
Sterling did take a slight knock this morning as the UK’s Services PMI figure came in at 49.7, well below the expected result of 52.9. However, any losses were soon regained and the pound hit an intraday high of €1.1855 against the single currency.
Aside from some slightly disappointing employment data, the greenback continues to climb. The euro is now just a shade away from collapsing below $1.30 and who would bet against the move coming as early as tomorrow?
The 17 nation currency continues to go from bad to worse. What would normally be bullish news, a successful Portuguese bond auction, turned sour as the premium Portugal will have to repay went up by well over 100 points. The news that the EU is potentially going to issue Europe wide bonds (rather than country specific) smells horribly like the actions bankers took in combining securities that got the world in this mess in the first place. Next week Italy and Spain will both have their first bond auctions of 2011. It will be very interesting to see what premium they will have to pay to secure finance. All-in-all, this storyline has legs and will dominate most of 2011.
In other news, well not that far from the apple tree, China’s shopping spree for entire nations (behind FT paywall) continues as they pledge to buy €6billion of Spanish debt. This is being viewed as a simple engagement to try to open up foreign markets to Chinese exports. However, with their cheaper yet comparable products, ownership of foreign government debt, vast currency and commodity reserves, could this be just another move to knock America from the top of global economics?
Tom Hampton
Analyst – Caxton FX
For the latest forex news and views, follow us on twitter @caxtonfx and sign up to our daily report.
Tuesday, 21 December 2010
Poor public finance data nudges sterling lower
Sterling took a step lower against the euro today and moved very slightly lower against the US dollar after UK data was released showing unexpectedly high public borrowing figures for November.
The Public Sector Net Borrowing Requirement result has called into question whether the government can meet its deficit-cutting target. The figure came in at almost £23billion in November, up from targets and last year’s figure of £17billion. The data, in conjunction with recent weak retail sales data, has shifted focus onto the state of the UK’s fragile recovery and its ability to grow in Q1 next year.
Despite this momentary blip, focus will undoubtedly return to the state of the EU and its debt crisis. Having had Ireland’s credit rating reduced to that of Trinidad & Tobago, Moody’s has now put Portugal on review for a possible (imminent) downgrade. Expect to see this saga continue throughout 2011.
In other news, the Swiss franc is continuing its bull charge as it smashes through all time highs against all of its major counterparts.
Tom Hampton
Analyst – Caxton FX
The Public Sector Net Borrowing Requirement result has called into question whether the government can meet its deficit-cutting target. The figure came in at almost £23billion in November, up from targets and last year’s figure of £17billion. The data, in conjunction with recent weak retail sales data, has shifted focus onto the state of the UK’s fragile recovery and its ability to grow in Q1 next year.
Despite this momentary blip, focus will undoubtedly return to the state of the EU and its debt crisis. Having had Ireland’s credit rating reduced to that of Trinidad & Tobago, Moody’s has now put Portugal on review for a possible (imminent) downgrade. Expect to see this saga continue throughout 2011.
In other news, the Swiss franc is continuing its bull charge as it smashes through all time highs against all of its major counterparts.
Tom Hampton
Analyst – Caxton FX
Wednesday, 1 December 2010
Euro has a momentary bounce
The euro has managed to claw back some of its losses as a three day selling spree lost steam. However, doubts still remain whether the eurozone can contain debt problems.
Rumours that the EU are looking to be more proactive in dealing with Portugal and Spain than they were with Ireland, has sent the single currency back up to $1.3143 and €1.1885 against the US dollar and sterling respectively. The news has also tightened (very slightly) bond premiums in Portugal, Spain and Italy over their German counterparts. An announcement tomorrow from the ECB will help to clear up these rumours, although the 16-nation currency still remains vulnerable to more heavy selling.
Another angle on this could be that the EUR has fallen at such a rate the market has been caught short of euros and investors are taking a ‘breather.’ Expect to see further selling resume after the ECB meeting on Thursday.
More good news this morning about the state of the UK economy, as better than expected Manufacturing PMI data gave the pound a short boost. The index came in at 58 for November, greatly exceeding the market predictions of 54.8. This is a 16 year high for the index. PMI data from the construction and service sectors are due tomorrow, but it would seem that the UK recovery is gaining traction.
Tom Hampton
Analyst – Caxton FX
Rumours that the EU are looking to be more proactive in dealing with Portugal and Spain than they were with Ireland, has sent the single currency back up to $1.3143 and €1.1885 against the US dollar and sterling respectively. The news has also tightened (very slightly) bond premiums in Portugal, Spain and Italy over their German counterparts. An announcement tomorrow from the ECB will help to clear up these rumours, although the 16-nation currency still remains vulnerable to more heavy selling.
Another angle on this could be that the EUR has fallen at such a rate the market has been caught short of euros and investors are taking a ‘breather.’ Expect to see further selling resume after the ECB meeting on Thursday.
More good news this morning about the state of the UK economy, as better than expected Manufacturing PMI data gave the pound a short boost. The index came in at 58 for November, greatly exceeding the market predictions of 54.8. This is a 16 year high for the index. PMI data from the construction and service sectors are due tomorrow, but it would seem that the UK recovery is gaining traction.
Tom Hampton
Analyst – Caxton FX
Friday, 26 November 2010
The dollar heads yet higher
Sterling fell to its lowest level for one month against the US dollar, bottoming out at $1.5614. With very little data out today, the pound’s just a spectator to broader market flows into the US currency. Britain’s strong links with the eurozone, which is having another torrid day in the markets, aren’t helping.
The euro’s falling after a report in the FT Deutschland said the majority of eurozone nations and the ECB were urging Portugal to apply for a bailout. Borrowing costs for Europe’s most indebted nations are at a record high as concerns reach fever pitch over several EU member states. The average yield for 10 year bonds from Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy reached 7.56%, its highest level since the inception of the single currency.
The dominating theme in the markets at the moment is one of risk aversion. With South Korea and America flexing their muscles on North Korea’s horizon with a series of sea trials, fears of a full on war are taking their toll on the market. The greenback has soared to a seven week high against the Japanese yen and the euro, hitting Y83.95 and €1.3204 respectively. Until a calmer sentiment descends on the market, we can also expect to see higher yielding currencies taking a step back as they have today.
Have a nice weekend and come on England!
Tom Hampton
Analyst – Caxton FX
The euro’s falling after a report in the FT Deutschland said the majority of eurozone nations and the ECB were urging Portugal to apply for a bailout. Borrowing costs for Europe’s most indebted nations are at a record high as concerns reach fever pitch over several EU member states. The average yield for 10 year bonds from Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy reached 7.56%, its highest level since the inception of the single currency.
The dominating theme in the markets at the moment is one of risk aversion. With South Korea and America flexing their muscles on North Korea’s horizon with a series of sea trials, fears of a full on war are taking their toll on the market. The greenback has soared to a seven week high against the Japanese yen and the euro, hitting Y83.95 and €1.3204 respectively. Until a calmer sentiment descends on the market, we can also expect to see higher yielding currencies taking a step back as they have today.
Have a nice weekend and come on England!
Tom Hampton
Analyst – Caxton FX
Monday, 15 November 2010
Sterling slips against the dollar
Sterling is down against a broadly firmer US dollar but remains at a seven week high against the struggling euro, currently trading at $1.6070 and €1.1820 respectively.
The greenback extended its gains from last week as better than expected retail sales data prompted a group of Republican economists to launch a campaign calling for the Fed to reduce its quantitative easing plan. The dollar index (a measure of the dollar’s value in comparison to a basket of currencies) hit a six-week high while the 10-year US treasury yield rose to its highest in two months and the 5 year yield rose more than 10 basis points (higher yield prices will drive up demand for US bonds).
Further concerns over the European debt crisis have sent the pound higher against the single currency today. Ireland is currently the nation under the kosh at the moment. It has been reported the Irish have rejected a bailout package from the ECB. The offer may still be taken up however, as Irish debt is currently running at over 30% of GDP, Anglo-Irish and Allied-Irish banks combined debt is roughly equal to a full years GDP. A statement from the emerald isle earlier today mentioned that they have enough liquidity to last ‘most of 2011.’ This does not sound like a long-term solution and some sort of bailout is surely necessary? (This could ironically be euro positive)
A raft of UK data out this week along with the B of E minutes from their November meeting could send the UK currency even higher as there will be very little support for further monetary easing.
Tom Hampton
Analyst – Caxton FX
The greenback extended its gains from last week as better than expected retail sales data prompted a group of Republican economists to launch a campaign calling for the Fed to reduce its quantitative easing plan. The dollar index (a measure of the dollar’s value in comparison to a basket of currencies) hit a six-week high while the 10-year US treasury yield rose to its highest in two months and the 5 year yield rose more than 10 basis points (higher yield prices will drive up demand for US bonds).
Further concerns over the European debt crisis have sent the pound higher against the single currency today. Ireland is currently the nation under the kosh at the moment. It has been reported the Irish have rejected a bailout package from the ECB. The offer may still be taken up however, as Irish debt is currently running at over 30% of GDP, Anglo-Irish and Allied-Irish banks combined debt is roughly equal to a full years GDP. A statement from the emerald isle earlier today mentioned that they have enough liquidity to last ‘most of 2011.’ This does not sound like a long-term solution and some sort of bailout is surely necessary? (This could ironically be euro positive)
A raft of UK data out this week along with the B of E minutes from their November meeting could send the UK currency even higher as there will be very little support for further monetary easing.
Tom Hampton
Analyst – Caxton FX
Friday, 12 November 2010
Ireland’s potential bailout boosts the euro
Sterling fell against the euro today – ending a run of six straight sessions on the rise - following speculation that Ireland may soon have a bailout package agreed. The supposed bailout helped to dampen fears about debt problems facing the periphery eurozone nations.
Despite poor preliminary GDP figures from France, Germany, Italy and dreadful industrial production results, the euro still managed to regain some of its losses from the past few days to currently be trading around €1.1730 against the pound.
The one saving grace for the euro is whispers in the market about an €80billion bailout package for the emerald isle. However, Ireland’s finance ministry said chatter about a bailout was untrue, but traders said reassurances from the EU and G20 that bondholders would not have to take a write down on Irish debt helped the euro to recover. It was later reiterated by the European Commission that Ireland had not requested financial aid.
It is hard to believe that GBP/EUR would have such a big movement against the grain, simply because Irish bondholders will not be taking a hit due the economy’s fragility alone. This reassurance may set some minds at ease, but stagflation in Spain and less than convincing GDP figures would surely override this? Next week we could see a full bailout plan for the Irish government, conveniently to the same tune as Allied Irish and Anglo Irish Banks combined.
Next week, with another busy week of data to be published from the UK, we could see similar gains for the UK currency.
I hope we see England drive the Aussies over the try line of parity just like the greenback has done today. Come on England!
Tom Hampton
Analyst – Caxton FX
Despite poor preliminary GDP figures from France, Germany, Italy and dreadful industrial production results, the euro still managed to regain some of its losses from the past few days to currently be trading around €1.1730 against the pound.
The one saving grace for the euro is whispers in the market about an €80billion bailout package for the emerald isle. However, Ireland’s finance ministry said chatter about a bailout was untrue, but traders said reassurances from the EU and G20 that bondholders would not have to take a write down on Irish debt helped the euro to recover. It was later reiterated by the European Commission that Ireland had not requested financial aid.
It is hard to believe that GBP/EUR would have such a big movement against the grain, simply because Irish bondholders will not be taking a hit due the economy’s fragility alone. This reassurance may set some minds at ease, but stagflation in Spain and less than convincing GDP figures would surely override this? Next week we could see a full bailout plan for the Irish government, conveniently to the same tune as Allied Irish and Anglo Irish Banks combined.
Next week, with another busy week of data to be published from the UK, we could see similar gains for the UK currency.
I hope we see England drive the Aussies over the try line of parity just like the greenback has done today. Come on England!
Tom Hampton
Analyst – Caxton FX
Tuesday, 9 November 2010
Sterling hits a high against the euro
Sterling rallied to its highest level in six weeks against the euro to hit €1.1641. However, further gains have been capped amid caution ahead of Wednesday’s inflation report from the Bank of England.
Early in the session, the euro’s losses deepened due to elevated concerns over a budget vote in Ireland causing 10 year bond yields to move above 8% yesterday. However, disappointing production and trade balance figures from the UK helped to stem the pounds gains.
Since the data, the pair have traded within a very tight range as investors wait for tomorrow’s report from the BoE, with the price hovering around the 1.16 level. It is highly unlikely to see a move much higher this afternoon and indeed a bout of profit taking could see the price ebb lower as we head into the later session.
Despite the UK’s consistently high inflation figures over the past few months, tomorrow’s report could have a deflationary effect on sterling as Mervyn King is notoriously dovish at these events.
In other news, anybody skiing this season will have a shock landing in Geneva airport as the Swiss franc continues to go from strength to strength. Over the past year, the swissie has seen some large gains and pull backs. The fact remains that the franc holds the most longevity as a safe haven investment going into a tricky Q4. You may want to think before you buy your sandwich at the airport, maybe wait until you reach the economic safety of the notoriously cheap French ski resorts!
Tom Hampton
Analyst – Caxton FX
Early in the session, the euro’s losses deepened due to elevated concerns over a budget vote in Ireland causing 10 year bond yields to move above 8% yesterday. However, disappointing production and trade balance figures from the UK helped to stem the pounds gains.
Since the data, the pair have traded within a very tight range as investors wait for tomorrow’s report from the BoE, with the price hovering around the 1.16 level. It is highly unlikely to see a move much higher this afternoon and indeed a bout of profit taking could see the price ebb lower as we head into the later session.
Despite the UK’s consistently high inflation figures over the past few months, tomorrow’s report could have a deflationary effect on sterling as Mervyn King is notoriously dovish at these events.
In other news, anybody skiing this season will have a shock landing in Geneva airport as the Swiss franc continues to go from strength to strength. Over the past year, the swissie has seen some large gains and pull backs. The fact remains that the franc holds the most longevity as a safe haven investment going into a tricky Q4. You may want to think before you buy your sandwich at the airport, maybe wait until you reach the economic safety of the notoriously cheap French ski resorts!
Tom Hampton
Analyst – Caxton FX
Monday, 8 November 2010
The dollar continues to strengthen
Investors continue to unwind their short positions in the greenback today with the US currency up across the board following on from Fridays positive employment data.
Solid non-farm payroll data and renewed concerns over the debt crisis in the eurozone have contributed to the descent of EUR/USD which is down one cent on the day, currently trading at $1.3930.
With most, if not all questions answered about another round of monetary easing in the US, the market is now able to bring the euro’s problems back to the foreground. Data suggesting that the Spanish economy is reaching stagflation, Irish and Spanish bonds hitting record highs against their German counterparts, and a scare over liquidity issues for a major Spanish bank (see last paragraph) have all helped to suppress the single currency.
The ‘buck’ has maintained its positive run against sterling as well, however the effects are muted as the pound continues its run on the euro, currently trading around €1.1580. GBP did manage to hit a peak of $1.6288 on Thursday, however the dollar has inched its way back to $1.6145.
Apart from the BoE Inflation Report on Wednesday, this week is fairly light on market moving announcements. Expect to see more problems exposed in the EU though; it is about time the truth came out.
In other news, I reported a potential ‘run’ on a major Spanish bank that was having liquidity problems. It turns out that these reports were unsubstantiated. The truth of the situation is this; a large queue formed outside a BBVA branch in Madrid. The people in said queue were in fact waiting to be issued with their numbers for a 10k run. BBVA had sponsored the runners out of the kindness of their corporate hearts, however this was misconstrued as a potential liquidity problem and BBVA’s share price fell by 2%....... Things really are that jumpy in the PIGS at the moment!
Tom Hampton
Analyst – Caxton FX
Solid non-farm payroll data and renewed concerns over the debt crisis in the eurozone have contributed to the descent of EUR/USD which is down one cent on the day, currently trading at $1.3930.
With most, if not all questions answered about another round of monetary easing in the US, the market is now able to bring the euro’s problems back to the foreground. Data suggesting that the Spanish economy is reaching stagflation, Irish and Spanish bonds hitting record highs against their German counterparts, and a scare over liquidity issues for a major Spanish bank (see last paragraph) have all helped to suppress the single currency.
The ‘buck’ has maintained its positive run against sterling as well, however the effects are muted as the pound continues its run on the euro, currently trading around €1.1580. GBP did manage to hit a peak of $1.6288 on Thursday, however the dollar has inched its way back to $1.6145.
Apart from the BoE Inflation Report on Wednesday, this week is fairly light on market moving announcements. Expect to see more problems exposed in the EU though; it is about time the truth came out.
In other news, I reported a potential ‘run’ on a major Spanish bank that was having liquidity problems. It turns out that these reports were unsubstantiated. The truth of the situation is this; a large queue formed outside a BBVA branch in Madrid. The people in said queue were in fact waiting to be issued with their numbers for a 10k run. BBVA had sponsored the runners out of the kindness of their corporate hearts, however this was misconstrued as a potential liquidity problem and BBVA’s share price fell by 2%....... Things really are that jumpy in the PIGS at the moment!
Tom Hampton
Analyst – Caxton FX
Friday, 5 November 2010
Dollar steadies
The dollar extended its advance from a nine-month low against the euro as employment data came in almost three times higher than the market has forecast.
The single currency fell early in the session as weaker than expected European retail sales figures and German factory data were published. Further news that the Spanish economy had stagnated re-positioned focus on to the troubled periphery nations and their debt problems.
Midway through the London session, data revealed that October’s US non-farm employment change was up 151,000. The number was a vast improvement on last month’s fall of 41,000 and bettered analysts’ predictions of a lowly 61,000.
Further news of a liquidity problem within a major Spanish bank (not hard to guess which one) has helped depress the euro further.
The greenback is currently trading at $1.4093 and $1.6233 against the euro and the pound respectively.
In other news, the aussie and kiwi dollar look set to notch up their best weekly gains in months and don’t look like stopping. The aussie broke through parity this week to hit a 28 year high (the highest level since the aussie was allowed to float on the open market) of $1.0181 against the US currency.
There is not as much market moving data out next week, however inflation reports from the UK and China could be very important. Especially for our brothers from the antipodes with lofty aspirations. Hopefully England can put one over on them this weekend!
Tom Hampton
Analyst – Caxton FX
The single currency fell early in the session as weaker than expected European retail sales figures and German factory data were published. Further news that the Spanish economy had stagnated re-positioned focus on to the troubled periphery nations and their debt problems.
Midway through the London session, data revealed that October’s US non-farm employment change was up 151,000. The number was a vast improvement on last month’s fall of 41,000 and bettered analysts’ predictions of a lowly 61,000.
Further news of a liquidity problem within a major Spanish bank (not hard to guess which one) has helped depress the euro further.
The greenback is currently trading at $1.4093 and $1.6233 against the euro and the pound respectively.
In other news, the aussie and kiwi dollar look set to notch up their best weekly gains in months and don’t look like stopping. The aussie broke through parity this week to hit a 28 year high (the highest level since the aussie was allowed to float on the open market) of $1.0181 against the US currency.
There is not as much market moving data out next week, however inflation reports from the UK and China could be very important. Especially for our brothers from the antipodes with lofty aspirations. Hopefully England can put one over on them this weekend!
Tom Hampton
Analyst – Caxton FX
Tuesday, 2 November 2010
Sterling falls off the back of disappointing construction data
In contrast to yesterday’s manufacturing figures, today’s construction Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) came in worse than expected. Analysts were predicting a modest monthly fall in the index to 53.1, however, the figure came in at 51.6, down quite significantly from last month at 53.8.
Following the news that activity in Britain’s construction sector slowed to its weakest level for eight months, sterling has taken a dive. The survey suggests construction will not make as strong a contribution to growth in the fourth quarter as it did earlier in the year. Thin trading volumes ahead of statements from the UK, US and EU central banks tomorrow and Thursday could have exacerbated the losses.
In other news, a surprise decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise interest rates to 4.75% has once again sent the aussie through parity with its US counterpart to hit $1.0022, its highest level ever recorded. With very strong fundamentals and growing exports to China, Australia stands in a very strong position. In fact very little seems able to stop the aussie at the moment. Let’s hope the autumn internationals see a different result.
Tom Hampton
Analyst – Caxton FX
Following the news that activity in Britain’s construction sector slowed to its weakest level for eight months, sterling has taken a dive. The survey suggests construction will not make as strong a contribution to growth in the fourth quarter as it did earlier in the year. Thin trading volumes ahead of statements from the UK, US and EU central banks tomorrow and Thursday could have exacerbated the losses.
In other news, a surprise decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise interest rates to 4.75% has once again sent the aussie through parity with its US counterpart to hit $1.0022, its highest level ever recorded. With very strong fundamentals and growing exports to China, Australia stands in a very strong position. In fact very little seems able to stop the aussie at the moment. Let’s hope the autumn internationals see a different result.
Tom Hampton
Analyst – Caxton FX
Monday, 25 October 2010
G20 hails a result for minnows
The US dollar has been sold across the board today as the G20 meeting over the weekend came to the agreement to shun competitive currency devaluation.
At the meeting in South Korea (nicely timed for corporate hospitality at the grand prix), a surprise deal was struck to give emerging nations a bigger voice in the IMF, recognising the power shift away from the traditional West. This recognition of a new ‘world order’ could be exacerbated by the dichotomy of what will happen over the next twelve months. As stated before, it is the developing nations of the East and South America that will be the driving engines to pull the world economy through these dark days. Whereas, the established West (US, EU and UK) languishes in their own self-pity and inability to compete. Action needs to be taken, but will extra monetary stimulus be enough to answer the West’s prayers? Governments need to help prop up private enterprise, after all it is these companies and their employees that pay the taxes.
In other news, sterling has hit a 7 month low against the euro today on concerns that the Bank of England may be veering towards more monetary easing to revive the flagging economy. However, if the rate of inflation stay at 3% or higher, can Mervyn and the boys really ‘print’ more money and artificially inflate the economy?
At the meeting in South Korea (nicely timed for corporate hospitality at the grand prix), a surprise deal was struck to give emerging nations a bigger voice in the IMF, recognising the power shift away from the traditional West. This recognition of a new ‘world order’ could be exacerbated by the dichotomy of what will happen over the next twelve months. As stated before, it is the developing nations of the East and South America that will be the driving engines to pull the world economy through these dark days. Whereas, the established West (US, EU and UK) languishes in their own self-pity and inability to compete. Action needs to be taken, but will extra monetary stimulus be enough to answer the West’s prayers? Governments need to help prop up private enterprise, after all it is these companies and their employees that pay the taxes.
In other news, sterling has hit a 7 month low against the euro today on concerns that the Bank of England may be veering towards more monetary easing to revive the flagging economy. However, if the rate of inflation stay at 3% or higher, can Mervyn and the boys really ‘print’ more money and artificially inflate the economy?
Friday, 22 October 2010
G20 meeting this weekend
The market seems fairly stable today as investors are hesitant to take out positions ahead of this weekend’s G20 meeting between the world’s financial leaders.
The US is raising the stakes in calling for countries to avoid using their currencies to gain economic advantage. US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, in a letter to the G20 finance pointed out that ‘emerging economies with undervalued currencies and solid reserves must allow their currencies to adjust in line with fundamentals.’ Of course, every financial leader of emerging economies will be looking to poopoo this as a weaker currency makes their exports much more attractive.
Leaders of more developed economies will be looking to strike some kind of accord to secure this agreement in principle, however pushing it through will be a lot harder in practice. It is highly unlikely that a binding agreement will be reached this weekend as heads of the developing economies will protest about the ability of countries such as the US and the UK to structure huge bailout packages.
In other news, sterling’s decline continues as it faces a sixth straight week lower against the euro. With the downward pressure associated with that fateful phrase “quantitative easing” in the UK and US showing little signs of abating, this trend is set to continue at least ahead of the Fed’s Nov 3rd meeting. Maybe if the French can protest for long enough, the eurozone’s debt issues will take their rightful place at the fore of the market’s focus.
Have a good weekend!
Tom Hampton
Analyst – Caxton FX
The US is raising the stakes in calling for countries to avoid using their currencies to gain economic advantage. US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, in a letter to the G20 finance pointed out that ‘emerging economies with undervalued currencies and solid reserves must allow their currencies to adjust in line with fundamentals.’ Of course, every financial leader of emerging economies will be looking to poopoo this as a weaker currency makes their exports much more attractive.
Leaders of more developed economies will be looking to strike some kind of accord to secure this agreement in principle, however pushing it through will be a lot harder in practice. It is highly unlikely that a binding agreement will be reached this weekend as heads of the developing economies will protest about the ability of countries such as the US and the UK to structure huge bailout packages.
In other news, sterling’s decline continues as it faces a sixth straight week lower against the euro. With the downward pressure associated with that fateful phrase “quantitative easing” in the UK and US showing little signs of abating, this trend is set to continue at least ahead of the Fed’s Nov 3rd meeting. Maybe if the French can protest for long enough, the eurozone’s debt issues will take their rightful place at the fore of the market’s focus.
Have a good weekend!
Tom Hampton
Analyst – Caxton FX
Wednesday, 20 October 2010
‘Hard road leads to a better future’
Just one of the chancellor’s quotes from today’s government spending review. The market seems to believe it does lead to a brighter future as sterling remains within range of where it was before George Osborne opened his mouth.
Despite the pound’s seesaw journey during this afternoon’s session in parliament, it has come out relatively unscathed. This either suggests that the market believes in what the government had to say, or, more likely, has already priced in the potential adverse affects (the other suggestion is that the review had little of any real substance!). The truth is probably somewhere in the grey middle. Most of the spending cuts had been accounted for. However, the crocodiles teeth I have been tracing for the UK currency against its peers on my screen for the past 2 hours tell a different story. If it was all priced in why was there so much volatility?
The truth is this: the next 18 months can go one of two ways. The bleakest view is for most of the west to suffer a double dip. A dire Q4 could put the UK back in recession with stubbornly high inflation and plenty of SME’s going under. It would be a long and slow road to recovery led by the east and a weak UK currency to try and boost exports.
The second scenario would be for the west to narrowly avoid recession with some economies following Japan into stagflation. The recovery would be led by the east (again), the UK’s austerity measures gain traction and market confidence grows, bringing foreign investment and inflates sterling.
Either way, we will see a series of troughs and peaks before we are out of the woods. With the government cutting costs to the tune of £81billion and a VAT hike on the horizon, the UK will be looking to private business to pull us through. The banks need to start lending again, however, with a banking levy on the cards, how likely is that?
Tom Hampton
Analyst – Caxton FX
Despite the pound’s seesaw journey during this afternoon’s session in parliament, it has come out relatively unscathed. This either suggests that the market believes in what the government had to say, or, more likely, has already priced in the potential adverse affects (the other suggestion is that the review had little of any real substance!). The truth is probably somewhere in the grey middle. Most of the spending cuts had been accounted for. However, the crocodiles teeth I have been tracing for the UK currency against its peers on my screen for the past 2 hours tell a different story. If it was all priced in why was there so much volatility?
The truth is this: the next 18 months can go one of two ways. The bleakest view is for most of the west to suffer a double dip. A dire Q4 could put the UK back in recession with stubbornly high inflation and plenty of SME’s going under. It would be a long and slow road to recovery led by the east and a weak UK currency to try and boost exports.
The second scenario would be for the west to narrowly avoid recession with some economies following Japan into stagflation. The recovery would be led by the east (again), the UK’s austerity measures gain traction and market confidence grows, bringing foreign investment and inflates sterling.
Either way, we will see a series of troughs and peaks before we are out of the woods. With the government cutting costs to the tune of £81billion and a VAT hike on the horizon, the UK will be looking to private business to pull us through. The banks need to start lending again, however, with a banking levy on the cards, how likely is that?
Tom Hampton
Analyst – Caxton FX
Monday, 18 October 2010
Sterling awaits Wednesday’s MPC minutes
With the calendar quiet on the data front, sterling has fallen by more than half a percent against the US dollar to trade just above the $1.59 level and has also lost ground to the euro, dropping below €1.14.
The pound has come off last week’s eight and a half month high against the greenback on doubts about how aggressive Federal Reserve monetary easing will be. There is also a sense now that Fed easing has been priced in leading some investors to cut their bets against that the dollar will decline.
The UK currency also remains vulnerable ahead of the publication of the latest MPC minutes and the UK government’s spending review, both on Wednesday. The review could increase speculation for more quantitative easing in the UK, and the BoE minutes could see a dovish move led by Adam Posen, putting sterling under further pressure. This all lends itself to the hypothesis that GBP will still have a little way to go towards the downside before things improve.
In other news, the outperforming aussie dollar made a move to beat parity against the US currency on Friday off the back of Bernanke’s speech where he outlined the Fed’s case for more easing, but has since dropped back to 0.99.
Tom Hampton
Analyst - Caxton FX
The pound has come off last week’s eight and a half month high against the greenback on doubts about how aggressive Federal Reserve monetary easing will be. There is also a sense now that Fed easing has been priced in leading some investors to cut their bets against that the dollar will decline.
The UK currency also remains vulnerable ahead of the publication of the latest MPC minutes and the UK government’s spending review, both on Wednesday. The review could increase speculation for more quantitative easing in the UK, and the BoE minutes could see a dovish move led by Adam Posen, putting sterling under further pressure. This all lends itself to the hypothesis that GBP will still have a little way to go towards the downside before things improve.
In other news, the outperforming aussie dollar made a move to beat parity against the US currency on Friday off the back of Bernanke’s speech where he outlined the Fed’s case for more easing, but has since dropped back to 0.99.
Tom Hampton
Analyst - Caxton FX
Wednesday, 29 September 2010
The US dollar continues to flounder
The greenback has managed to claw back early losses as it sank to $1.5874 against sterling, $1.3641 against the single currency and a two year low against the Australian dollar.
The ailing dollar fell this morning as sliding US treasury yields and mounting fears of a second round of quantitative easing pushed the currency lower. With a continuous stream of weak economic data and Q4 predicted to be very slow globally, it’s beginning to look like the only thing that may shift focus away from the greenback would be a European nation defaulting on its debt (which is looking increasingly unlikely).
Sterling felt the full force of panic over potential monetary easing measures as Adam Posen, a member of the MPC, declared that the Bank of England may even need to go as far as buying up corporate debt to guard from the double dip recession.
In other news, the House of Representatives is poised to pass legislation to pressure China to let its currency appreciate more freely. A brave move by the Americans as the Chinese Central Bank holds over a trillion dollars in notes alone. A sell off of dollars from China could send the US currency into freefall (at least the US export market might help them through these dark days?).
Tom Hampton
Analyst Caxton FX
The ailing dollar fell this morning as sliding US treasury yields and mounting fears of a second round of quantitative easing pushed the currency lower. With a continuous stream of weak economic data and Q4 predicted to be very slow globally, it’s beginning to look like the only thing that may shift focus away from the greenback would be a European nation defaulting on its debt (which is looking increasingly unlikely).
Sterling felt the full force of panic over potential monetary easing measures as Adam Posen, a member of the MPC, declared that the Bank of England may even need to go as far as buying up corporate debt to guard from the double dip recession.
In other news, the House of Representatives is poised to pass legislation to pressure China to let its currency appreciate more freely. A brave move by the Americans as the Chinese Central Bank holds over a trillion dollars in notes alone. A sell off of dollars from China could send the US currency into freefall (at least the US export market might help them through these dark days?).
Tom Hampton
Analyst Caxton FX
Tuesday, 28 September 2010
Sterling’s intra-day rise and fall
Sterling had a fairly bullish morning to hit highs of €1.1809 and $1.5895, before taking a tumble against every one of its major counterparts after a member of the Monetary Policy Committee expressed his views for more quantitative easing.
The pounds rally began this morning as dollar selling continued after reported comments from a former Chinese central bank advisor said that a devaluation of the US currency was inevitable. The ascent gathered more momentum as the revised CBI (Core Business Index) figure showed consumer spending had risen sharply last month when a fall was expected. Positive results in the UK’s Current Account and last quarter’s GDP figure kept the upward trend going until................ BOOM! Adam Posen, a member of the MPC said “I think further monetary easing is needed.” He went on to outline that it should begin with additional gilt buying, before leading into full fiscal stimulus and corporate debt purchase to avoid a “Japanese style scenario.”
These bearish comments have since sent the UK currency to intraday lows of €1.1680 and $1.5722.
In other news, the euro continues its demolition of the US dollar to climb to a high of $1.3509, despite ongoing concerns over the health of the European banking industry (with Ireland the focus at present) and the eurozone’s ability to meet escalating sovereign debt.
The pounds rally began this morning as dollar selling continued after reported comments from a former Chinese central bank advisor said that a devaluation of the US currency was inevitable. The ascent gathered more momentum as the revised CBI (Core Business Index) figure showed consumer spending had risen sharply last month when a fall was expected. Positive results in the UK’s Current Account and last quarter’s GDP figure kept the upward trend going until................ BOOM! Adam Posen, a member of the MPC said “I think further monetary easing is needed.” He went on to outline that it should begin with additional gilt buying, before leading into full fiscal stimulus and corporate debt purchase to avoid a “Japanese style scenario.”
These bearish comments have since sent the UK currency to intraday lows of €1.1680 and $1.5722.
In other news, the euro continues its demolition of the US dollar to climb to a high of $1.3509, despite ongoing concerns over the health of the European banking industry (with Ireland the focus at present) and the eurozone’s ability to meet escalating sovereign debt.
Friday, 24 September 2010
Is the euro’s ascent sustainable?
The single currency has risen from $1.1923 against the US dollar at the start of June to hit a 5 month high today at $1.3463.
The overwhelming feeling in the market is that these gains are unsustainable amid concern that nations on the region’s periphery will default on their debts despite their surprising ability to raise funds at recent bond auctions.
The euro’s recent rally over the past few days has pushed it back into overvalued territory against a backdrop of deteriorating fundamentals. With Ireland’s GDP shrinking by 1.2% in Q2 and bond rates moving towards the ever important double digit range, a default from a PIIGS nation remains a distinct possibility. Germany cannot support a whole continent forever. Europe’s only saving grace is that each country’s government has implemented austerity measures to try and rectify the situation; their only hope is that with a tough Q4 coming up globally, everybody else has a tougher time than them.
Keen readers will remember that yesterday, at an FX trends seminar the underlying trend for Q4, potentially into next year, is Swissie strength. You will see today that the Swiss franc is at a two and a half year high against the greenback having smashed through several key resistance levels to be hunting down parity. Another currency approaching a level playing field with the US dollar is the Aussie dollar. With continuing strong growth from the tiger nations and the commodity boom, the Aussie is going from strength to strength.
Have a good weekend
Tom Hampton
Analyst Caxton FX
The overwhelming feeling in the market is that these gains are unsustainable amid concern that nations on the region’s periphery will default on their debts despite their surprising ability to raise funds at recent bond auctions.
The euro’s recent rally over the past few days has pushed it back into overvalued territory against a backdrop of deteriorating fundamentals. With Ireland’s GDP shrinking by 1.2% in Q2 and bond rates moving towards the ever important double digit range, a default from a PIIGS nation remains a distinct possibility. Germany cannot support a whole continent forever. Europe’s only saving grace is that each country’s government has implemented austerity measures to try and rectify the situation; their only hope is that with a tough Q4 coming up globally, everybody else has a tougher time than them.
Keen readers will remember that yesterday, at an FX trends seminar the underlying trend for Q4, potentially into next year, is Swissie strength. You will see today that the Swiss franc is at a two and a half year high against the greenback having smashed through several key resistance levels to be hunting down parity. Another currency approaching a level playing field with the US dollar is the Aussie dollar. With continuing strong growth from the tiger nations and the commodity boom, the Aussie is going from strength to strength.
Have a good weekend
Tom Hampton
Analyst Caxton FX
Thursday, 23 September 2010
Has Sterling bottomed out?
My screen is finally awash with green today as sterling pulls back some of its losses from the past few days against all of its major counterparts except the Swiss franc.
The pound is back up near €1.1750 against the euro having sunk to a four month low of €1.1672. Further doubt over the longevity of the European economic recovery spread as poor data showed growth in the eurozone slowed in September, causing peripheral bond yield spreads to widen against German counterparts. Against the greenback, the UK currency did creep above $1.57 earlier in the day. The dollar is continuing its fall from grace with concerns over further rounds of quantitative easing and yet more poor data showing that the amount of jobless claims unexpectedly rose last week.
Be warned, Sterling’s rebound could be a momentary correction as the pound was heavily sold on Wednesday. The UK economy remains extremely vulnerable as the BoE alluded to with the possibility of a fresh monetary injection.
In further news, I spent my morning at a seminar on foreign exchange trends, which was as interesting as it sounds.... The major themes to report for the middle to long term are;
A) A double dip recession (depending on your definition) looks an almost certainty for the US, UK and Europe, while Asia looks to be the engine house for the global economy.
B) The unstoppable ascent of the Swiss franc. The lack of support for the traditional safe US dollar has led risk averse investors to the franc and the Japanese yen. However, with the BoJ’s intervention to depress their currency, the Swissie has become the hedge of choice for many. Great internal economic fundamentals and global uncertainty in Q4 look set to send the franc higher.
C) Those of you looking for a higher-yielding asset may look to the Aussie dollar. Some analysts are saying that it is near the end of its run. However, with commodity prices at an all time high, insatiable demand from China and a high interest rate that is looking likely to be moved even higher, it has every potential.
Tom Hampton
Analyst Caxton FX
The pound is back up near €1.1750 against the euro having sunk to a four month low of €1.1672. Further doubt over the longevity of the European economic recovery spread as poor data showed growth in the eurozone slowed in September, causing peripheral bond yield spreads to widen against German counterparts. Against the greenback, the UK currency did creep above $1.57 earlier in the day. The dollar is continuing its fall from grace with concerns over further rounds of quantitative easing and yet more poor data showing that the amount of jobless claims unexpectedly rose last week.
Be warned, Sterling’s rebound could be a momentary correction as the pound was heavily sold on Wednesday. The UK economy remains extremely vulnerable as the BoE alluded to with the possibility of a fresh monetary injection.
In further news, I spent my morning at a seminar on foreign exchange trends, which was as interesting as it sounds.... The major themes to report for the middle to long term are;
A) A double dip recession (depending on your definition) looks an almost certainty for the US, UK and Europe, while Asia looks to be the engine house for the global economy.
B) The unstoppable ascent of the Swiss franc. The lack of support for the traditional safe US dollar has led risk averse investors to the franc and the Japanese yen. However, with the BoJ’s intervention to depress their currency, the Swissie has become the hedge of choice for many. Great internal economic fundamentals and global uncertainty in Q4 look set to send the franc higher.
C) Those of you looking for a higher-yielding asset may look to the Aussie dollar. Some analysts are saying that it is near the end of its run. However, with commodity prices at an all time high, insatiable demand from China and a high interest rate that is looking likely to be moved even higher, it has every potential.
Tom Hampton
Analyst Caxton FX
Wednesday, 22 September 2010
Sterling goes into freefall against the euro
In a topsy-turvy session the pound is down today against all of its major counterparts except the greenback. The UK currency plunged through support levels to be down almost a percent on the day against the euro, currently trading around €1.1660. However, sterling did enjoy gains against the US dollar, hitting an intraday high of $1.5713.
Sterling’s abysmal performance this week was not helped by the dovish tone of the MPC minutes from the meeting on September 8th. The notes showed an 8-1 vote in favour of holding interest rates at a record low of 0.5% with Andrew Sentence repeating his lone call for a rate hike. Comments from members showed genuine concern about the growth outlook for the economy and the very real potential for more quantitative easing.
Duncan Higgins, Senior Analyst at Caxton FX said ‘Despite the consumer price index holding at 3.1% last month, the members see little change in the upside risk to inflation. As long as inflationary pressures are downplayed, it appears the door is likely to remain open to further quantitative easing, a prospect that will continue to weigh on sterling going forward.’
In other news, last night the Federal Reserve lowered the level at which it would intervene with what it is being called Quantitative Easing II (QE2) causing the market to choose the path of least resistance and sell the greenback.
Tom Hampton
Analyst Caxton FX
Sterling’s abysmal performance this week was not helped by the dovish tone of the MPC minutes from the meeting on September 8th. The notes showed an 8-1 vote in favour of holding interest rates at a record low of 0.5% with Andrew Sentence repeating his lone call for a rate hike. Comments from members showed genuine concern about the growth outlook for the economy and the very real potential for more quantitative easing.
Duncan Higgins, Senior Analyst at Caxton FX said ‘Despite the consumer price index holding at 3.1% last month, the members see little change in the upside risk to inflation. As long as inflationary pressures are downplayed, it appears the door is likely to remain open to further quantitative easing, a prospect that will continue to weigh on sterling going forward.’
In other news, last night the Federal Reserve lowered the level at which it would intervene with what it is being called Quantitative Easing II (QE2) causing the market to choose the path of least resistance and sell the greenback.
Tom Hampton
Analyst Caxton FX
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