Wednesday 28 October 2009

Sales data took the pound higher against the kiwi, continues to climb in trading this morning

The pound made up further ground on the kiwi dollar, gaining 0.65% after positive sales data supported evidence that the UK economy is still on the road to recovery.
  • The sales data, which came in above market forecasts, encouraged investors to buy back into the UK currency, with the price briefly reaching above 2.20.
  • Conversely, selling pressure remained on the New Zealand dollar after the nation's Prime Minister expressed concern over the currency's strength, and stated that there were few tools with which to deal with it.
  • Higher-yielding currencies were also under pressure overnight as Asian equities turned negative, with Nikkei 225 losing over a percent, dulling demand for "riskier" assets.
  • In trading this morning the pound has continued to rally, rising to a three-week high over 2.22 as a New Zealand business confidence survey unexpectedly undershot forecasts, weakening the possibility of a hawkish RBNZ rate statement to be made this evening at 20:00.

The pound continues its rally against a broadly weaker aussie

Sterling edged up against the aussie yesterday, benefiting from improved UK sales data, which supported claims that the UK economy is recovering.
  • On Monday evening, MPC member Adam Posen, following negative GDP data, stated that there were still signs of an economic recovery even if Britain is behind other countries in pulling out of the recession.
  • His statement found support yesterday after the UK CBI sales showed month-on-month improvement, beating market expectations and buoying demand for the UK currency.
  • The UK currency has pushed higher in trading this morning after investors pared bets of a steep rate rise in Australia after inflation data did not increase by as much as some had anticipated.
  • The quarterly CPI figure came in at 1.0%, which tilted the markets away from pricing in a more aggressive upward rate movement at the next RBA meeting on Nov 3 rd.
  • Currently the pair are trading around the 1.80 level, just below a three-week high for the pound.

US dollar continues to push higher against the euro, as consumer confidence stumbles

The dollar rose against the single currency for a third consecutive day in its longest advance since August, as a report showed US consumer confidence fell this month.
  • The euro struggled in trading yesterday after data showed that public sector lending in the eurozone declined by 0.3% in September compared to this period last year.
  • The figure raises concern that there are still few signs that the ECB's unlimited provision of liquidity to banks is prompting any pick up in eurozone broad money lending, which could put pressure on the single currency.
  • The euro then continued to slide, after data revealed that US consumer confidence unexpectedly fell in October as fears about future job prospects increasingly preyed upon the American public.
  • The index fell to 47.7 from 53.4 in September, disappointing market expectations of a rise and spurring a return to perceived safety of the greenback.
  • In addition, traders noted that as the single currency breached a key technical level at $1.4850, stop-losses were triggered, which pushed the single-currency to a two-week low of $1.4773.

Pound edges higher against a stronger dollar, which found support from weak consumer sentiment

Sterling closed up against the dollar yesterday, but slipped back nearly a cent from its intra-day high after a survey showed that consumer confidence in the US disappointed market expectations.
  • In early trading, the markets continued to take the pound higher with analysts noting that long term investors and Asian reserve managers were attracted by sterling's one-week low.
  • This trend was maintained as the UK CBI retail sales index advanced to a balance of +8 in October from a balance of +3 in September, the largest advance since June 2007, beating forecasts.
  • There was also support for the UK currency as the oil giant BP reported third-quarter profits of $4.98bn (£3bn), which experts said "obliterated" market predictions.
  • However, the dollar trimmed its losses in the afternoon after a survey revealed that US consumer confidence dropped in October. The index produced a figure of 47.7, substantially less than the 53.7 forecast, which cautioned traders against risky investments.
  • The weak report bodes ill for the US economy indicating restrained consumer spending, and suggests that the recovery is not as entrenched as initially thought.

Pound pushes up against the euro, spurred by positive sales figures

Sterling pushed back over 1.10 in trading yesterday as data revealed a pick-up in UK realised sales dulling concerns over the health of the British economy.
  • The pound continued to recover last week's losses as the UK CBI realised sales index revealed a significant monthly increase in sales volumes, beating market forecasts.
  • Conversely data also showed that lending to the eurozone's private sector declined in September compared with the same period a year earlier, highlighting notable constraints on financing to companies and households that could damage the region's economic recovery.
  • Private-sector lending decreased 0.3% in September, after rising by an annual rate of 0.1% in August, data from the ECB revealed.
  • In addition, traders noted good demand for sterling from longer term investors and Asian reserve managers who were keen to sell the dollar following the US currency's sharp gains in the previous session.
  • However, the pound remains range bound, slipping back marginally this morning, as investors remain cautious after MPC member Adam Posen in his speech on Monday evening reminded market players that UK officials may maintain stimulus programs in order to cement the recovery.