Wednesday 11 November 2009

The pound was down against the kiwi yesterday but has picked up today after the RBNZ expressed renewed concern over the strength of the currency

The UK currency edged down against the kiwi in trading yesterday, losing just 0.1%, as weak global equities offset a poor report on the UK's credit rating.
  • Sterling lost ground on Tuesday after a ratings agency said the UK was the major economy most at risk of losing its AAA credit rating.
  • However, after a knee-jerk sell-off in response to the comments, the pound recovered some poise after traders realised that the remarks contained no new information.
  • The kiwi was also struggled as risk appetite waned slightly with global equities failing to build on Monday's gains, which dampened demand for the higher-yield currency.
  • This morning, the pound has recovered its losses after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand said the current high level of the kiwi dollar was not sustainable and might hinder the rebalancing of the economy after the financial crisis.

Pound continued to slip back against the aussie, hampered by a report from Fitch ratings agency

The pound continued to lose ground to the aussie dollar yesterday, dipping back below 1.80 as Fitch rating agency commented on the fragility of the UK's AAA credit rating.
  • Sterling slipped back sharply as Fitch released the news in the early hours yesterday morning, with investors concerned about the long term health of the UK economy.
  • However, sterling pulled back steadily from its sell off following a survey from the UK's Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, which said its measure of house prices rose to +34, its highest in nearly three years.
  • In addition, the British Retail Consortium said the value of like-for-like UK sales rose 3.8% in October compared with a year ago, the biggest rise since April.
  • In trading this morning, the aussie has made further ground on the pound, although its gains are limited as a raft of data from Australia's top trading partner, China, did not excite investors as it showed a marked slowdown in loan growth and sluggish trade performance.

A fall in confidence in Germany, put the euro under pressure yesterday, edging down against the dollar

The dollar stabilised after heavy selling on Monday as weak data from the eurozone put pressure on the single currency, with the pair closing slightly down at 1.4991.
  • The dollar found support as global equities turned negative, failing to build on gains at the start of the week, which dulled demand for the "riskier" euro.
  • The single currency was also undermined by a report that showed German investor confidence declined once again in November, by more than economists estimated.
  • The ZEW Centre for European Economic Research said its index of investor and analyst expectations in Germany, which aims to predict developments six months ahead, dropped to 51.1 from 56 in October.
  • Having lost significant ground in early trading, the euro recovered steadily through the afternoon session as risk appetite returned to the markets and investors resumed dollar selling.
  • However, analysts did note that concerns continued to be voiced about the strength of the euro, with one EU official stating that its current valuation is not good news for growth in Europe."
  • Currently, the single currency is trading slightly higher as European stocks open on a positive note, with the price holding above 1.50.

Sterling stumbled yesterday after a damning credit rating report weakened confidence in the UK economy

The pound dropped for the first time in six days against the greenback, though its losses were minimized with dollar selling remaining the overall market trend.
  • Initially sterling fell sharply, losing over a cent, after a ratings agency said highly-indebted Britain was the major economy most at risk of losing its triple-A rating.
  • The pound retreated from a three-month high against the dollar after Fitch told Reuters Britain would have a tougher time than the United States in sustaining its fiscal deficit without impacting interest rates or the currency.
  • However, sterling was able to trim its losses as strong data on UK house prices and retail sales released overnight suggested the economy was showing positive signs of emerging from recession.
  • Furthermore, analysts felt that the pound had fallen in a knee-jerk reaction to Fitch's statement and that traders pared back their sterling short positions as they realised there was nothing new in the news.
  • In trading this morning, the pair is steady, currently hovering around 1.6750, as investors await important UK employment figures and the BoE's quarterly inflation report.

The pound lost ground to the euro yesterday but recovered to close just 0.04% down

Sterling came under heavy selling pressure after the UK's credit rating came under fire, but the pound recovered to finish just marginally down against the euro.
  • In early trading, the single currency advanced against the pound as European stocks rebounded and Fitch Ratings said the UK's credit rating is most at risk among top-rated nations.
  • The pound dropped against all but one of the 16 major currencies after David Riley, head of global sovereign ratings at Fitch, said the UK needs "the largest budget adjustment."
  • Data also revealed that the UK trade deficit widened sharply to an eight-month high in September as imports of cars surged to their highest level for more than a year.
  • The Office for National Statistics reported the UK's global goods trade deficit widened to £7.2 billion in September from a deficit of £6.1 billion in August.
  • However, sterling was able to recover, recouping losses on the view that the comments from Fitch added little to what was already known.
  • In addition, the German ZEW Economic sentiment survey revealed a further drop in confidence, which dampened demand for the euro.
  • Investors today look ahead to the Bank of England's quarterly Inflation Report at 10:30, when the central bank will set out its latest forecasts for growth and prices.