Thursday 28 January 2010

NZD - £ also rose a full cent against the kiwi yesterday, with investors cautious ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rate decision

  • In the evening, New Zealand's central bank reaffirmed that it saw no need to raise rates before mid-year given tame inflation.

  • Expectations of a rate rise in March have dipped following the Bank's announcement, though the kiwi is trading marginally higher this morning following Obama's speech.

  • Asian shares took a boost from the US President's comments, buoying demand for higher-risk currencies. The price at the moment is hovering above 2.28.

AUD - The pound moved nearly a cent higher against the aussie dollar yesterday, buoyed by comments from a BoE policymaker.

  • The pound made it to three consecutive days moving higher against the Australian currency, with fears about the global recovery stifling demand.

  • However, investors have gone back to aussie buying this morning, relieved after President Obama did not sound too forceful on the banking overhaul during his State of Union address.

  • Currently the aussie is only up around 0.2% though, with the price still hovering above 1.80 with traders apprehensive about possible hiccups in the re-appointment of Ben Bernanke as the chairman of the Fed.

€/$ € 6-month low yesterday, moving as low as $1.4021. Concerns over eurozone recovery persisted following a positive tone from the US Fed Reserve.

  • In early trading, the pair held relatively steady as the market awaited news from the Fed's latest policy decision.

  • The euro steadily weakened though with both European and US stocks opening lower.

  • At the end of its two-day meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee kept rates unchanged, as expected, but also said that it intended to end some emergency lending and asset-buying programmes.

  • Having dipped briefly dipped below $1.40 in trading this morning, the euro has recovered slightly, after Obama did not make any strong remarks about the bank regulation plan.

£/$ Bouyed by comments from a BoE policymaker, £ was able to post hestiant gains against $ yesterday, though its upward movement was limited.

  • BoE policy board member Andrew Sentance alluded to the possibility that rising inflation would lead to an imminent end to the quantitative easing programme.

  • He did add though that the economy, which on Tuesday was shown to have just barely made it out of recession in the fourth quarter, was facing opposing pressures which the central bank would have to consider in its Inflation Report next month.

  • In the evening the dollar received a slight boost after the Fed struck an optimistic tone at the end of their two day meeting.

  • Although they kept rates unchanged as expected, one board member dissented on the decision, saying that the Fed should remove the phrase vowing to keep the rate low for "an extended period."

  • In trading this morning, the pound is continuing to climb, nearly up a cent on the day following a speech from Obama, which eased market worries about moves to regulate US banks.

£/€ The pound resumed its upward trend against the euro yesterday, climbing a further half cent to close back above 1.15

  • Sterling found support following comments on inflation from a Bank of England policymaker who spurred speculation that the central bank may end quantitative easing next week.

  • Andrew Sentance said that it could be hard to maintain the target inflation rate if import and export prices keep rising.

  • The market took the comments to suggest an imminent end to the BoE's £200 billion asset-buying plan, but analysts said they did little to change the view that interest rate rises will not follow until the second half of the year at the earliest.

  • Traders brushed off a weak reading of UK retail sales earlier in the day, while UK corporate demand also helped the pound to recovery from losses incurred after the weaker-than-expected growth figure.

  • In trading this morning, sterling has reached a five-month high at 1.1593, already up nearly 0.5% for the day.