Tuesday 17 November 2009

Sterling is up against the kiwi as rising risk appetite has little impact on a weaker NZ dollar

The pound crept up against the kiwi dollar in trading yesterday, though with little economic data to guide the market the pair held relatively steady.
  • Rising risk appetite, spurred by better-than-expected US retail sales and robust Japanese growth figures, was unable to lift demand for the higher-yielding currency.
  • Investors remain wary of the kiwi after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand made it clear that they plan to keep interest rates at a record low level well into 2010.
  • In trading this morning the pound has rallied over a cent, bringing the price back over 2.25 with investors taking their lead from a weaker Australian dollar.

Following a slow day, the pound is currently trading strongly against the aussie following dovish comments from the RBA

There was little movement between this pair yesterday with the pound managing to make hesitant gains as investors remained cautious ahead of RBA monetary policy minutes.
  • Rallying equities and the rising price of gold were unable to push the aussie higher in trading yesterday as market participants held steady before important policy information.
  • Indeed, the price of gold hit another record high yesterday as the US dollar resumed its downward trend, which helped global equities to fresh highs for 2009.
  • In trading this morning, the aussie has slipped backed after the central bank said it was keeping an open mind on the pace of further interest rate rises, forcing investors to cut bets of a December hike.
  • Though the RBA were less hawkish than many had expected, calling future rate rises as "open question," the market is still pricing in 155 basis points of rate rises next year, hoisting the target rate to 5%.
  • Currently the aussie has dropped back 1.0%, enabling the price to climb back over 1.81.

The single currency has once again found a ceiling at $1.50, currently trading slightly lower despite strong risk appetite

The single currency posted gains against a broadly weaker dollar yesterday, buoyed by a rally in risk appetite and the words of Ben Bernanke.
  • The dollar weakened against most of its major counterparts as Japan's economy expanded in the third quarter at the fastest pace in more than two years, encouraging demand for higher-yielding assets.
  • Japan's gross domestic product rose at an annual 4.8%, Cabinet Office figures showed yesterday. It was the second straight advance after the nation's deepest postwar recession.
  • Strong US equities and data showing that retail sales rose more than economists predicted suggested improvement in the US economy and emboldened investors to move towards riskier assets and away from the relative safe-haven of the greenback.
  • In the evening, the dollar pared its losses after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke gave reassurances that the central bank is committed to a strong currency but failed to convince investors that the US would take action to shore up the greenback.
  • In trading this morning, the dollar has made hesitant gains, buoyed by rising risk aversion due to sagging Asian stock markets, with Japan's Nikkei 225 closing down 0.6%.

The dollar has weakened against the pound following a speech from Fed Chariman Bernanke

Sterling shot up to a three month high of 1.6875 against the dollar yesterday after strong equities and comments from the Fed Chairman encouraged risk appetite.
  • Asian and European stock markets started the week on a positive, and Wall Street joined the trend in the US, with the S&P 500 claiming another peak for the year, which weakened demand for the haven currency.
  • Stronger-than-forecast US retail sales numbers for October added to the optimistic mood.
  • U.S. retail sales increased a seasonally adjusted 1.4% in October, led by a rebound in auto sales from a post-clunkers slump .
  • As the dollar weakened, investors were encouraged to add to bets in the carry trade, which added pressure to the ailing greenback.
  • In addition, in the evening Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke mentioned the need for a strong dollar, which encouraged dollar selling.
  • However, Bernanke did not promise any support for such a policy and in fact reiterated his stance on holding rates low for an extended period. In response the pound has capped its gains in trading this morning, with the pair trading steadily around the overnight closing price.

The pound is enjoying a strong rally at the moment, currently hovering just below 1.13

The pound climbed for the third consecutive day against the single currency, reaching up to a two month high of 1.1270 following the positive words of leading policy makers.
  • During the early trading sessions, the pound found slight support as rallying equities firmed up demand for sterling, though the pair remained relatively range bound.
  • On the US session, a speech from Ben Bernanke saw a sharp spike in demand for the pound as his comments on the need for a strong dollar strengthened confidence in the global economy.
  • Sterling was able to hold its gains following comments from BoE policy maker Andrew Sentance who highlighted the risk of stoking inflation if the central bank keeps emergency stimulus measures in place for too long as Britain's economic recovery gains traction.
  • For sterling, the focus remains on whether or not the Bank of England has finished asset purchases under its quantitative easing programme, with the minutes to its November meeting set to be released on Wednesday.
  • The minutes will probably be the key event for the pound this week, given the high degree of uncertainty surrounding the voting pattern.