Sterling dropped to a 12-year low against the Australian dollar this afternoon, as the release of worse-than-expected GDP figures in the UK undermined the pound. Gross Domestic Product data released this morning showed the British economy contracted by 1.9% in the first quarter, compared to a projected contraction of 1.5%.
The Australian dollar was also helped by rising equity markets, while the pound has been weighed down by a newspaper article highlighting risks to Britain's sovereign credit rating.
Friday 24 April 2009
Pound hit by bigger than expected contraction in GDP
The pound has weakened notably against the euro and the dollar this morning after first quarter GDP figures showed the UK economy has shrunk by 1.9%. Analysts had predicted that the economy would contract by 1.5%, so the news is much worse than anticipated. To give it some historical context, today's fall is the biggest quarterly decline in GDP since the third quarter of 1979.
This is now the third quarter of negative growth in GDP, confirming that the British economy remains in deep recession. The biggest factor in the contraction is the decline in the manufacturing sector, which shrank 6.2% in the first three months of the year, having fallen 4.9% in the previous quarter. There appears to be a fresh flight to safe-haven currencies from the pound as renewed scrutiny of Chancellor Alistair Darling's growth forecasts begins. As well as the dollar, another safe-haven currency, the Yen, has also been particularly favoured by investors.
This is now the third quarter of negative growth in GDP, confirming that the British economy remains in deep recession. The biggest factor in the contraction is the decline in the manufacturing sector, which shrank 6.2% in the first three months of the year, having fallen 4.9% in the previous quarter. There appears to be a fresh flight to safe-haven currencies from the pound as renewed scrutiny of Chancellor Alistair Darling's growth forecasts begins. As well as the dollar, another safe-haven currency, the Yen, has also been particularly favoured by investors.
Pound bounces off lows against the euro
The pound bounced off the lows we saw on Wednesday, as investors took advantage of buying the pound at relatively cheap levels. However, the gains we saw were modest as concerns surround the mounting debt problems the UK is facing up to – indeed the UK may be in danger of losing its AAA credit rating after rating agencies expressed their doubts about Britain’s ability to cope with its public debt. If the UK were to suffer the embarrassment of having its rating downgraded – following Ireland, Spain, Portugal, and Greece who have already suffered downgrades – it would increase the cost of sovereign borrowing, making it more than likely interest rates and taxes would have to go up. In other news, it was confirmed that Britain’s manufacturing output suffered its sharpest decline in the first quarter of this year since records began in 1975. Within the eurozone, industrial new orders came in slightly better than expected, but they are still at historically very low levels.
In early trading today, the pound is back under selling pressure in anticipation of GDP figures released in the UK this morning. We are expecting to see that the UK’s economy has contracted by 1.5% in the first quarter of this year – the third consecutive quarter of contraction. In addition to this, retail sales figures are being released giving an indication of how consumers are fairing in the economic slowdown. IFO release their business climate and expectations survey within Germany this morning.
In early trading today, the pound is back under selling pressure in anticipation of GDP figures released in the UK this morning. We are expecting to see that the UK’s economy has contracted by 1.5% in the first quarter of this year – the third consecutive quarter of contraction. In addition to this, retail sales figures are being released giving an indication of how consumers are fairing in the economic slowdown. IFO release their business climate and expectations survey within Germany this morning.
Pound strengthens against the US dollar
In a quiet day’s trading, the pound strengthened against the dollar yesterday as some investors bought sterling to take advantage of Wednesday’s fall. However, these gains were capped as investors continued to digest Chancellor Alistair Darling’s gloomy budget. He revealed that the UK will run a budget deficit of 12.4% of GDP and have to issue a record £220 billion of gilts for the 2009/10 fiscal year. Following his speech, the pound fell to a three-week low against the dollar, although it recovered to some extent yesterday as investors’ risk aversion calmed.
The pound’s recovery was aided by some positive news from Bank of England policymaker David Blanchflower, who said he could see some tentative signs of recovery in the UK economy. There were also some strong results released by Debenhams who reported half-year profits of £104.2million, causing a surge in retail shares. In addition, Barclays Chief Executive John Varley confirmed that the bank had made a positive start to the year, adding it would lend an extra £11 billion to British households and businesses this year. Finally, a slow in the decline of British factory orders in April from the previous month also improved investor sentiment, although they remained wary of the state of the British economy following revelations that there is a £90 billion black hole at the heart of Alistair Darling’s budget which may require £45 billion of tax hikes and spending cuts over the coming years. The City also reacted negatively to the news that a new 50% tax rate for those earning £150,000 or more is set to be introduced, prompting fears that the UK may no longer be an attractive place to do business in the future.
In America, a report by the National Association of Realtors showing a fall of 3% in the pace of existing home sales to a much lower-than-expected annual rate of 4.57 million units shook investor confidence, as did uncertainty before US regulators reveal their stress test methodology against American banks later today.
In early trading today, the pound has weakened against the dollar ahead some important data released on both sides of the Atlantic. In the UK, Year-on-Year and Quarter-on-Quarter GDP figures are released at 9.30 BST and are expected to show that UK growth has contracted by 1.5% in the first quarter. Important UK Retail Sales data is also due for release at the same time. In America, New Home Sales and Durable Goods Orders data is out 13.30 BST and 15.00 BST respectively, with both expected to affect the dollar’s performance today.
The pound’s recovery was aided by some positive news from Bank of England policymaker David Blanchflower, who said he could see some tentative signs of recovery in the UK economy. There were also some strong results released by Debenhams who reported half-year profits of £104.2million, causing a surge in retail shares. In addition, Barclays Chief Executive John Varley confirmed that the bank had made a positive start to the year, adding it would lend an extra £11 billion to British households and businesses this year. Finally, a slow in the decline of British factory orders in April from the previous month also improved investor sentiment, although they remained wary of the state of the British economy following revelations that there is a £90 billion black hole at the heart of Alistair Darling’s budget which may require £45 billion of tax hikes and spending cuts over the coming years. The City also reacted negatively to the news that a new 50% tax rate for those earning £150,000 or more is set to be introduced, prompting fears that the UK may no longer be an attractive place to do business in the future.
In America, a report by the National Association of Realtors showing a fall of 3% in the pace of existing home sales to a much lower-than-expected annual rate of 4.57 million units shook investor confidence, as did uncertainty before US regulators reveal their stress test methodology against American banks later today.
In early trading today, the pound has weakened against the dollar ahead some important data released on both sides of the Atlantic. In the UK, Year-on-Year and Quarter-on-Quarter GDP figures are released at 9.30 BST and are expected to show that UK growth has contracted by 1.5% in the first quarter. Important UK Retail Sales data is also due for release at the same time. In America, New Home Sales and Durable Goods Orders data is out 13.30 BST and 15.00 BST respectively, with both expected to affect the dollar’s performance today.
Euro strengthens against the US dollar as Wall Street posts gains
Wall Street shares rose on Thursday as surprising regional bank earnings gave investors hope the US economy was starting to improve, despite fresh evidence of a deep recession that helped drive gold over $900 an ounce. The euro strengthened more than 1 percent against the dollar yesterday to a one week high, after data showed the eurozone's services and manufacturing sectors managed their best performance in six months in April. The good readings suggested that a severe recession in the eurozone was no longer deepening. That data, coupled with a net quarterly profit at Credit Suisse also unveiled yesterday, resulted in an increase in risk appetite which weakened the dollar. Credit Suisse announced double the anticipated first quarter results.
Better than expected bank earnings helped to increase investors’ appetite for riskier currencies, despite grim data announced in the US yesterday including news that applications for jobless claims had risen and that home sales had also fallen. However, concerns over the US government's "stress tests" on 19 major US banks have resulted in increased uncertainty this morning.
In the eurozone Germany will be releasing their IFO Business Climate results this morning, whilst in the US Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales will be announced this afternoon.
Better than expected bank earnings helped to increase investors’ appetite for riskier currencies, despite grim data announced in the US yesterday including news that applications for jobless claims had risen and that home sales had also fallen. However, concerns over the US government's "stress tests" on 19 major US banks have resulted in increased uncertainty this morning.
In the eurozone Germany will be releasing their IFO Business Climate results this morning, whilst in the US Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales will be announced this afternoon.
New Zealand dollar remains within recent ranges
The New Zealand dollar remained within recent ranges against the aussie yesterday, but weakened against the pound. Market attention is turning to next week’s interest rate decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which is expected to result in another 50 basis point cut to 2.5 percent.
Australian dollar weakens as investors take profits on sterling's fall
The Australian dollar has weakened off against sterling as investors took profits on the pound’s tumble after the UK’s annual budget. Sterling's gains were limited as investors remained cautious about the nation’s increasingly grim public finances, as the budget revealed Britain will run a budget deficit of 12.4% of GDP. Also, news that British manufacturing orders continued to fall in April, slightly more slowly than in March but still faster than economists had expected, capped the pound’s movement. All eyes will now be on the release of UK GDP and Retail Sales data this morning.
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