Sterling erased some of the Wednesday’s gains yesterday following a raft of weak economic data released around the world. It was confirmed that the Chinese economy is slowing at its fastest pace on record as the world’s third largest economy is being hit hard by falling consumption, and there was a sharp fall in US housing starts. Negative news being released from such major economies weighed on the pound, despite David Miles – who is replacing David Blanchflower on the MPC in June – suggesting that the worst of the recession may be behind the UK, with there being tentative signs that the Bank of England’s quantitative easing plan may be working. The FTSE 100 also enjoyed a good day, breaking through the 4,000 barrier as it was lifted by banks, following JPMorgan’s first quarter results. Energy stocks also rose following firmer crude oil prices, with a barrel of crude oil trading at around the $53 mark this morning.
However, sterling’s losses were pared as it was confirmed that eurozone industrial output plummeted by a record 18.4% year on year in February, and inflation halved to an all time low in March, underlining the depth of the recession and putting more pressure on the European Central Bank for more monetary easing. Overnight we have also had comments in Tokyo from Jean-Claude Trichet, who stated that the European Central Bank must do everything to restore corporate confidence, with more rate cuts on the cards.
First tier economic data is light on the ground today in both the UK and the eurozone. We do not expect any large moves in GBP/EUR today as sterling’s recent rally looks to cool, with traders taking profits and wary of taking on too much risk ahead of the weekend.
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