Caxton FX launches dedicated currency report for NGOs

Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs), who operate overseas, regularly require ‘exotic’ currencies whose movements are rarely publicised.

Caxton FX, foreign exchange and payments specialist, understands the importance for NGOs managing risk within the volatile currency markets. Daily analysis of ‘hard’ currencies such as the US dollar and euro are readily available and although useful, NGOs, such as charities, often need information regarding softer currencies.

According to a report by “Stamp Out Poverty”* between £20 - £50,000,000 is being lost by UK Charities by the method they transfer money overseas. Regular analysis of currencies across the developing world could be used as a tool to help make informed decisions regarding currency transfers.

Caxton FX is pleased to announce the launch of their NGO Currency Report this week. The inaugural report, which forecasts over 30 world currencies during a 6 month period, provides a clear and concise overview of each currency to aid budgeting and planning.

To join the distribution list or for further information, send an email to charities@caxtonfx.com


* “Missing millions” http://www.stampoutpoverty.org/?lid=11155

Sterling knocked off its highs by UK Inflation

The headline rate of UK inflation has slowed, dipping to 3.4%, according to data released this morning.

This figure is marginally below market forecasts, having hit a 17-month high in April. As a result, there has been a knee-jerk sell off in the pound as the prospects for an early interest rate rise ebb further away. The Bank of England has been persistent in holding its line that inflation will begin to fall, despite its continued rise over the past six-months. Today’s figure will certainly come as a relief for the Governor, whose stance was becoming increasingly undermined.

Duncan Higgins, senior analyst at Caxton FX explains, “Mervyn King can perhaps now breathe slightly easier. Pressure was mounting, and officials were beginning to speak out about the unnerving rate at which inflation was rising. Today’s figure may be the turning point that the Governor was looking for and inflation may now begin to steadily fall back.”

The VAT rise back in January had been one of the leading factors behind the rise in prices. With its influence now coming to an end, spare capacity in the economy is putting downward pressure on inflation.

“Temporary factors driving prices higher are now beginning to fade and spare capacity should become increasingly important, helping to put inflation on a downward path,” continues Higgins.

The troubles in Europe will also weigh on prices. “As economic growth slows in the eurozone, demand for UK exports will weaken, driving prices back down.”

Although the headline remains some way above the 1.0% leeway afforded to the Bank, sterling has come off its highs.

Duncan Higgins concludes, “There is now likely to be far less pressure to prematurely raise interest rates. Headline inflation still has some way to fall before meeting the 2.0% target, but it appears that factors applying upward pressure are now subsiding.”

The pound has weakened to sit at €1.2050, and has dropped back from its intra-day high to trade marginally above $1.47 against the US currency.

Sterling holds steady as UK growth forecasts are revised

The newly established Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) announced a downgrade of potential economic growth in 2011, within their inaugural report released this morning.

Back in March this year, the Labour government had forecast growth of between 3.0 – 3.5% next year. The OBR now predicts that the economy will expand by just 2.6% and have revised down their growth forecast for this year, with an estimate of just 1.3%, against the former Chancellor Alistair Darling’s original estimate of 3.0%.

Duncan Higgins, senior analyst at Caxton FX commented, “The reaction in the market has not been too pronounced with the market widely expecting a downward revision. The figures are reflective of the upcoming budget cuts, which are likely to weigh on economic activity for some time.”

The OBR also gave a renewed forecast of the UK’s public deficit, estimating that it will fall to 10.5% of GDP in the 2010-11 financial year, down from Labour’s 11.1% estimate.

“The lower deficit forecast is certainly a positive, but the market is waiting to see exactly where the cuts will fall before reacting. Sterling has crept higher against the dollar in the wake of the report, but direction is still largely being dictated by movements in the equity markets,” continues Higgins.

At present the pound is trading back near a one-month high against the US currency, back above $1.47. Against the euro, the pound is holding station just above €1.20.

Sterling brushes off weak production figures

Figures released from the UK manufacturing industry this morning have disappointed, with production down 0.4% in April, undershooting market expectations.

Although the data missed forecasts by a considerable margin, the year-on-year rate remains in positive territory. UK industrial production mirrored this figure, also disappointing expectations and failing to reflect the positive numbers seen from the Purchasing Managers’ indices recently. Reaction to this latest economic news has been rather unpronounced within the markets, with investors looking at the equity markets to dictate direction.

Duncan Higgins, senior analyst at Caxton FX says, “These figures will serve as a stark reminder that the UK economic recovery is still far from assured. Although the majority of UK fundamentals are still trending upwards, the upcoming budget measures are going to provide a significant hurdle.”

Sterling has come off its highs following the release, but remains holding around €1.21.

“The pound’s foundation above €1.20 remains intact, with data continuing to have only a minimal impact on the currency markets. Investors remain focused on wider developments from the eurozone at present, which is keeping sterling on a solid footing,” comments Higgins.

In spite of the weak figures today, we expect that sterling could progress higher over the short term.

Duncan Higgins concludes, “The euro is still suffering from a severe lack of market confidence, and despite the efforts of ECB President Trichet to calm fears, investors remain sceptical. The single currency can only achieve brief rallies, and these are predominantly based on profit taking as opposed to any real shift in sentiment.”

At present sterling is trading at €1.21, and is around half a cent down on the day against the US dollar at $1.4650.

Bank of England hold interest rate at record low

Coming as little surprise to investors, the Bank of England announced that interest will remain unchanged at 0.5%, alongside the level of quantitative easing holding at £200 billion.

With a Budget due in a little less than two weeks, the Bank is expected to remain on the sidelines. They are likely to wait and see what impact the fiscal tightening has on the economy before revising their latest projections.

Duncan Higgins, senior analyst at Caxton FX says, “With spending cuts and tax rises just around the corner we are unlikely to see a change in interest rates this year. The fear is that the measures the government is due to implement could destabilise the recovery and raising rates prematurely would exacerbate the problem.”

In the past few months pressure has been building that the rising level of inflation would force the Bank to intervene and raise rates, but these pressures are easing.

“The Bank has stubbornly stuck to its line that inflation will fall below the 2.0% target in the medium term, despite growing dissent. Increasingly, factors do point to inflation subsiding. Troubles in the eurozone are showing little sign of easing and falling demand from the continent will put downward pressure on prices. This will be compounded by weaker domestic demand as the full impact of tax increases and spending cuts is felt,” comments Higgins.

The markets have shown little reaction to the Bank’s decision and sterling is continuing to steadily appreciate ahead of the ECB’s press conference this afternoon.

Duncan Higgins continues, “The ECB is particularly pressured at the moment and internal conflicts are not helping. Officials will be keen to give speculators as little ammunition as possible, and we expect the information provided to be as vague as they can justifiably get away with.”

At present sterling is trading back near its 18-month high hit on Monday, but could move higher if Trichet fails to downplay growing fears about the eurozone’s financial stability.

How will the government’s proposed spending cuts impact sterling?

David Cameron paves the way for ‘painful cuts ahead that will be unavoidably tough’, with details in the emergency Budget on June 22nd.

The impact of any proposed measures has raised concerns about the prospects for the UK economy, particularly considering the fragile nature of the recovery. This could have a distinct effect on sterling as investors show caution against buying into the currency.

“The pound’s rally against the euro could come to an abrupt halt should the spending cuts prove to be too much too soon. The government needs to find a fine balance: one that sufficiently appeases the market’s desire to see the deficit cut, but falls short of strangling the fledgling recovery,” comments Duncan Higgins, senior analyst at Caxton FX.

So where does this leave sterling over the longer-term?

“Through the summer, we expect to see sterling’s rally against the euro continue, albeit at a more gradual pace than we have seen recently. Fears about the eurozone banking crisis are failing to subside and investors will be inclined to continue selling the currency, particularly as most eurozone officials seem apathetic, even content, with the euro’s slide,” says Higgins.

Duncan Higgins continues, “Into the longer term sterling’s strength could be undermined as the UK’s economic figures begin to reflect the spending cuts. April’s Budget forecast for economic growth in 2010 and 2011 could well prove to be optimistic in light of new government policy. The Bank of England, in order to shield the economy against the cuts, will also be far less inclined to raise interest rates, seeing an increased pressure on sterling.”

Services sector continues to expand but hurdles lie ahead

Data released this morning showed that the UK services industry continued to expand in May, measured by the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI).

Although the figure, of 55.4, was below market forecasts, it still underlines solid growth within the service sector. Service providers maintain high expectations of future growth but there are concerns building about the potential adverse effects of the government’s policies to cut the budget deficit. On the surface, recovery in the sector is encouraging but weak trends and fiscal tightening could see strains in the coming months.

Duncan Higgins, senior analyst at Caxton FX says, “It is certainly encouraging that the services sector is continuing to expand, but the upcoming budget cuts do cloud prospects for the industry. For the past year the sector has consistently been in positive territory. The risk is that this trend could be severed, with the proposed cuts expected to weigh heavily for some time.”

Unsurprisingly given the current macro trends, the data has had little direct impact on the currency markets with the pound continuing to trade around the mid €1.19s.

Higgins comments, “Economic fundamentals are continuing to be sidelined, with the eurozone debt debacle holding focus. The level of risk in the market is likely to continue determining currency movements, with the UK upcoming Budget also providing impetus for the pound,” continues Higgins.

“Whilst the underlying economic recovery in the UK remains buoyant and confidence towards the eurozone remains heavily subdued, we expect sterling to maintain its upward trend. Over the medium term, we expect that sterling could drift steadily toward €1.25, though the Budget will remain a key obstacle, “continues Higgins.

Currently sterling is trading just below 1.20 against the euro, unchanged on the day, and at 1.4650 against the US dollar.

If the euro is in such a mess, why is sterling not stronger?

With the headlines from the eurozone going from bad to worse and confidence in the euro nearing rock bottom, the logic would be that the pound in our pockets should be worth more. Caxton FX explains why this is not the case.

Since early March, sterling has moved from below €1.10 to high of €1.1880 hit on May 17th, but has stopped gaining at that point. We have seen the price consolidate its position between €1.16 and €1.17 in the past couple of weeks and, in the short term at least, it looks set to remain in that range.

There are number of reasons accounting for sterling’s comparative weakness, perhaps the most predominant of which is Britain’s exposure to the eurozone.

Duncan Higgins, senior analyst at Caxton FX explains, “The eurozone comprises Britain’s largest trading partner and a deepening of the crisis could quickly sap demand for UK exports. Inevitably then, our interests are similarly aligned as a strong recovery in Europe should have a positive impact on the British economy.”

Concerns about the banking crisis in the eurozone are also weighing on the pound.

“The FTSE’s recent declines have been led by the banking sector, with fears growing about the level of exposure that UK banks have to the troubles in Southern Europe. Although CajaSur is a comparatively small bank, there are risks that Spain would have to step in to salvage more banks as the price of interbank borrowing is beginning to soar,” says Higgins.

Adding to the pounds already heavy load is the government’s proposed action toward the deficit. This has impacted negatively on sterling.

Higgins says, “Although the market is in approval of the government’s budget cutting policies, there are risks that these could undermine the strength of the recovery. Monetary policy will likely be kept loose longer than was initially expected to accommodate these cutbacks, which provides another drag on the currency.”

The pound, particularly in this current climate, is still considered a “risky” asset. With risk aversion as high as it is, it is really only the US dollar and Japanese yen that are is a strong position.

“Whilst the pound continues to be sold in favour of safer currencies, this will weigh sterling’s movement against the euro. With markets remaining as jittery as they are, it is unlikely that we will see sterling break out of its current range against the euro in the short term,” concludes Higgins.

UK inflation hits its highest level in 18-months

The rate of inflation in Britain rose again last month and now stands at its highest level since November 2008.

Standing at 3.7%, up from March’s figure of 3.4%, the data once again beat expectations. However, even a leap of this extent will have little impact on the markets with investors heavily focused on the government’s upcoming budget proposals. The market is also expecting little change in rhetoric from the Bank of England, which recently in its quarterly report maintained its line that inflation will head back towards the 2.0% target in the coming months.

Duncan Higgins, senior analyst at Caxton FX comments, “The Bank’s policy has for some time now been that the prevailing degree of spare capacity in the market should start to push headline inflation sharply lower. At present the rate of increase is showing little sign of slowing. Certain policymakers have already voiced their concern about these upward pressures and April’s figure could bring more people into their school of thought.”

Sterling’s comparative weakness, which raises the price of imports, is serving to offset the cheaper value of British exports. There are also fears that should the government choose to raise VAT, which Cameron has refused to rule out, inflation may remain on its current course.

“Although at present the Bank believes that the downside pressures on inflation are stronger, there are clearly still significant risks to the upside. In his budget should Osborne outline plans to raise VAT, inflation could take significantly more time to drop back down. In this scenario, the Bank could come under increasing pressure to raise interest rates in order to curb rising prices,” continues Higgins.

Taking its lead from sovereign debt concerns, sterling is lower again this morning, trading around 1.1650 against the euro and 1.4450 against the dollar.

ConDem Nation sees sterling rise

The currency market has been stuck in limbo over the past few days, following the indecisive nature of the electoral result.

Trading has been extremely volatile, with investors reacting to the news as it breaks from Westminster. The political scene as it stands has come as a positive for both the UK gilt market and the currency, with a substantial part of uncertainty now removed.

Duncan Higgins, senior analyst at Caxton FX comments, “The market’s leading concern is Britain’s fiscal predicament and how the incoming government chooses to address it. From the market’s perspective, the Liberals concession on the timing of cutbacks has been particularly positive. The view now is that a coalition between the Conservatives and Lib Dems should still have the strength to enforce the necessary measures to bring Britain’s finances back under control.”

Sterling rallied across the board yesterday following the news and is continuing to edge higher this morning. However, just as one period of uncertainty comes to a close, speculation builds on just how the coalition will work in practice.

“In theory, Cameron’s entrance into Number 10 will have calmed markets for the moment. However, building a stable coalition is going to be a tall task and there is already severe dissent being voiced on both sides about the concessions being made to accommodate the other. The situation remains on a knife edge, and sterling is certainly still liable to pull back should problems arise,” continues Higgins.

The other major factor buoying sterling is the fragility of the situation in the eurozone. The recent bailout failed to allay fears, and the euro’s status as a reserve currency is coming increasingly under threat. At present sterling is holding around the 1.18 level.

Duncan Higgins adds, “Providing there are no nasty surprises from Westminster in the coming weeks, we could see sterling back above €1.20 by June."