Data released this morning showed that the UK services industry continued to expand in May, measured by the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI).
Although the figure, of 55.4, was below market forecasts, it still underlines solid growth within the service sector. Service providers maintain high expectations of future growth but there are concerns building about the potential adverse effects of the government’s policies to cut the budget deficit. On the surface, recovery in the sector is encouraging but weak trends and fiscal tightening could see strains in the coming months.
Duncan Higgins, senior analyst at Caxton FX says, “It is certainly encouraging that the services sector is continuing to expand, but the upcoming budget cuts do cloud prospects for the industry. For the past year the sector has consistently been in positive territory. The risk is that this trend could be severed, with the proposed cuts expected to weigh heavily for some time.”
Unsurprisingly given the current macro trends, the data has had little direct impact on the currency markets with the pound continuing to trade around the mid €1.19s.
Higgins comments, “Economic fundamentals are continuing to be sidelined, with the eurozone debt debacle holding focus. The level of risk in the market is likely to continue determining currency movements, with the UK upcoming Budget also providing impetus for the pound,” continues Higgins.
“Whilst the underlying economic recovery in the UK remains buoyant and confidence towards the eurozone remains heavily subdued, we expect sterling to maintain its upward trend. Over the medium term, we expect that sterling could drift steadily toward €1.25, though the Budget will remain a key obstacle, “continues Higgins.
Currently sterling is trading just below 1.20 against the euro, unchanged on the day, and at 1.4650 against the US dollar.
Thursday, 3 June 2010
Thursday, 27 May 2010
If the euro is in such a mess, why is sterling not stronger?
With the headlines from the eurozone going from bad to worse and confidence in the euro nearing rock bottom, the logic would be that the pound in our pockets should be worth more. Caxton FX explains why this is not the case.
Since early March, sterling has moved from below €1.10 to high of €1.1880 hit on May 17th, but has stopped gaining at that point. We have seen the price consolidate its position between €1.16 and €1.17 in the past couple of weeks and, in the short term at least, it looks set to remain in that range.
There are number of reasons accounting for sterling’s comparative weakness, perhaps the most predominant of which is Britain’s exposure to the eurozone.
Duncan Higgins, senior analyst at Caxton FX explains, “The eurozone comprises Britain’s largest trading partner and a deepening of the crisis could quickly sap demand for UK exports. Inevitably then, our interests are similarly aligned as a strong recovery in Europe should have a positive impact on the British economy.”
Concerns about the banking crisis in the eurozone are also weighing on the pound.
“The FTSE’s recent declines have been led by the banking sector, with fears growing about the level of exposure that UK banks have to the troubles in Southern Europe. Although CajaSur is a comparatively small bank, there are risks that Spain would have to step in to salvage more banks as the price of interbank borrowing is beginning to soar,” says Higgins.
Adding to the pounds already heavy load is the government’s proposed action toward the deficit. This has impacted negatively on sterling.
Higgins says, “Although the market is in approval of the government’s budget cutting policies, there are risks that these could undermine the strength of the recovery. Monetary policy will likely be kept loose longer than was initially expected to accommodate these cutbacks, which provides another drag on the currency.”
The pound, particularly in this current climate, is still considered a “risky” asset. With risk aversion as high as it is, it is really only the US dollar and Japanese yen that are is a strong position.
“Whilst the pound continues to be sold in favour of safer currencies, this will weigh sterling’s movement against the euro. With markets remaining as jittery as they are, it is unlikely that we will see sterling break out of its current range against the euro in the short term,” concludes Higgins.
Since early March, sterling has moved from below €1.10 to high of €1.1880 hit on May 17th, but has stopped gaining at that point. We have seen the price consolidate its position between €1.16 and €1.17 in the past couple of weeks and, in the short term at least, it looks set to remain in that range.
There are number of reasons accounting for sterling’s comparative weakness, perhaps the most predominant of which is Britain’s exposure to the eurozone.
Duncan Higgins, senior analyst at Caxton FX explains, “The eurozone comprises Britain’s largest trading partner and a deepening of the crisis could quickly sap demand for UK exports. Inevitably then, our interests are similarly aligned as a strong recovery in Europe should have a positive impact on the British economy.”
Concerns about the banking crisis in the eurozone are also weighing on the pound.
“The FTSE’s recent declines have been led by the banking sector, with fears growing about the level of exposure that UK banks have to the troubles in Southern Europe. Although CajaSur is a comparatively small bank, there are risks that Spain would have to step in to salvage more banks as the price of interbank borrowing is beginning to soar,” says Higgins.
Adding to the pounds already heavy load is the government’s proposed action toward the deficit. This has impacted negatively on sterling.
Higgins says, “Although the market is in approval of the government’s budget cutting policies, there are risks that these could undermine the strength of the recovery. Monetary policy will likely be kept loose longer than was initially expected to accommodate these cutbacks, which provides another drag on the currency.”
The pound, particularly in this current climate, is still considered a “risky” asset. With risk aversion as high as it is, it is really only the US dollar and Japanese yen that are is a strong position.
“Whilst the pound continues to be sold in favour of safer currencies, this will weigh sterling’s movement against the euro. With markets remaining as jittery as they are, it is unlikely that we will see sterling break out of its current range against the euro in the short term,” concludes Higgins.
Tuesday, 18 May 2010
UK inflation hits its highest level in 18-months
The rate of inflation in Britain rose again last month and now stands at its highest level since November 2008.
Standing at 3.7%, up from March’s figure of 3.4%, the data once again beat expectations. However, even a leap of this extent will have little impact on the markets with investors heavily focused on the government’s upcoming budget proposals. The market is also expecting little change in rhetoric from the Bank of England, which recently in its quarterly report maintained its line that inflation will head back towards the 2.0% target in the coming months.
Duncan Higgins, senior analyst at Caxton FX comments, “The Bank’s policy has for some time now been that the prevailing degree of spare capacity in the market should start to push headline inflation sharply lower. At present the rate of increase is showing little sign of slowing. Certain policymakers have already voiced their concern about these upward pressures and April’s figure could bring more people into their school of thought.”
Sterling’s comparative weakness, which raises the price of imports, is serving to offset the cheaper value of British exports. There are also fears that should the government choose to raise VAT, which Cameron has refused to rule out, inflation may remain on its current course.
“Although at present the Bank believes that the downside pressures on inflation are stronger, there are clearly still significant risks to the upside. In his budget should Osborne outline plans to raise VAT, inflation could take significantly more time to drop back down. In this scenario, the Bank could come under increasing pressure to raise interest rates in order to curb rising prices,” continues Higgins.
Taking its lead from sovereign debt concerns, sterling is lower again this morning, trading around 1.1650 against the euro and 1.4450 against the dollar.
Standing at 3.7%, up from March’s figure of 3.4%, the data once again beat expectations. However, even a leap of this extent will have little impact on the markets with investors heavily focused on the government’s upcoming budget proposals. The market is also expecting little change in rhetoric from the Bank of England, which recently in its quarterly report maintained its line that inflation will head back towards the 2.0% target in the coming months.
Duncan Higgins, senior analyst at Caxton FX comments, “The Bank’s policy has for some time now been that the prevailing degree of spare capacity in the market should start to push headline inflation sharply lower. At present the rate of increase is showing little sign of slowing. Certain policymakers have already voiced their concern about these upward pressures and April’s figure could bring more people into their school of thought.”
Sterling’s comparative weakness, which raises the price of imports, is serving to offset the cheaper value of British exports. There are also fears that should the government choose to raise VAT, which Cameron has refused to rule out, inflation may remain on its current course.
“Although at present the Bank believes that the downside pressures on inflation are stronger, there are clearly still significant risks to the upside. In his budget should Osborne outline plans to raise VAT, inflation could take significantly more time to drop back down. In this scenario, the Bank could come under increasing pressure to raise interest rates in order to curb rising prices,” continues Higgins.
Taking its lead from sovereign debt concerns, sterling is lower again this morning, trading around 1.1650 against the euro and 1.4450 against the dollar.
Wednesday, 12 May 2010
ConDem Nation sees sterling rise
The currency market has been stuck in limbo over the past few days, following the indecisive nature of the electoral result.
Trading has been extremely volatile, with investors reacting to the news as it breaks from Westminster. The political scene as it stands has come as a positive for both the UK gilt market and the currency, with a substantial part of uncertainty now removed.
Duncan Higgins, senior analyst at Caxton FX comments, “The market’s leading concern is Britain’s fiscal predicament and how the incoming government chooses to address it. From the market’s perspective, the Liberals concession on the timing of cutbacks has been particularly positive. The view now is that a coalition between the Conservatives and Lib Dems should still have the strength to enforce the necessary measures to bring Britain’s finances back under control.”
Sterling rallied across the board yesterday following the news and is continuing to edge higher this morning. However, just as one period of uncertainty comes to a close, speculation builds on just how the coalition will work in practice.
“In theory, Cameron’s entrance into Number 10 will have calmed markets for the moment. However, building a stable coalition is going to be a tall task and there is already severe dissent being voiced on both sides about the concessions being made to accommodate the other. The situation remains on a knife edge, and sterling is certainly still liable to pull back should problems arise,” continues Higgins.
The other major factor buoying sterling is the fragility of the situation in the eurozone. The recent bailout failed to allay fears, and the euro’s status as a reserve currency is coming increasingly under threat. At present sterling is holding around the 1.18 level.
Duncan Higgins adds, “Providing there are no nasty surprises from Westminster in the coming weeks, we could see sterling back above €1.20 by June."
Trading has been extremely volatile, with investors reacting to the news as it breaks from Westminster. The political scene as it stands has come as a positive for both the UK gilt market and the currency, with a substantial part of uncertainty now removed.
Duncan Higgins, senior analyst at Caxton FX comments, “The market’s leading concern is Britain’s fiscal predicament and how the incoming government chooses to address it. From the market’s perspective, the Liberals concession on the timing of cutbacks has been particularly positive. The view now is that a coalition between the Conservatives and Lib Dems should still have the strength to enforce the necessary measures to bring Britain’s finances back under control.”
Sterling rallied across the board yesterday following the news and is continuing to edge higher this morning. However, just as one period of uncertainty comes to a close, speculation builds on just how the coalition will work in practice.
“In theory, Cameron’s entrance into Number 10 will have calmed markets for the moment. However, building a stable coalition is going to be a tall task and there is already severe dissent being voiced on both sides about the concessions being made to accommodate the other. The situation remains on a knife edge, and sterling is certainly still liable to pull back should problems arise,” continues Higgins.
The other major factor buoying sterling is the fragility of the situation in the eurozone. The recent bailout failed to allay fears, and the euro’s status as a reserve currency is coming increasingly under threat. At present sterling is holding around the 1.18 level.
Duncan Higgins adds, “Providing there are no nasty surprises from Westminster in the coming weeks, we could see sterling back above €1.20 by June."
Monday, 10 May 2010
Friday, 7 May 2010
Hung parliament sends sterling to gallows
After months of speculation, it appears that the pollsters have called it and the UK looks set for a hung parliament.
As the results have trickled in the Conservatives, as was expected, have got the majority vote and leading number of seats. However, they are certainly going to fall short of the 326 needed to form a majority and the markets have reacted accordingly. Sterling has slipped sharply across the board this morning, down over a percent against nearly all the majors.
Duncan Higgins, senior analyst at Caxton FX comments, “The political wrangling will begin in earnest next week, and credible signs of a working government could still be days, or even weeks away. In that time it is unlikely that we will see much reprieve for sterling. The fact that the markets have been pricing in a hung parliament scenario for some time now has almost certainly prevented the pound from sliding further against the euro.”
“The uncertainty surrounding the next government has simply compounded pressure on sterling, and against the dollar it is continuing to drop. With the ongoing crisis in the eurozone and its longer-term ramifications also in focus, we are not too optimistic about sterling’s short term prospects,” continues Higgins.
Sterling is currently trading just above 1.15 against the euro and it could begin to bounce back in the latter parts of next week should the coalition talks prove fruitful. Against the US currency, the pound is now nearing $1.46 and there could be further mileage in this drop should the US release positive job numbers today.
As the results have trickled in the Conservatives, as was expected, have got the majority vote and leading number of seats. However, they are certainly going to fall short of the 326 needed to form a majority and the markets have reacted accordingly. Sterling has slipped sharply across the board this morning, down over a percent against nearly all the majors.
Duncan Higgins, senior analyst at Caxton FX comments, “The political wrangling will begin in earnest next week, and credible signs of a working government could still be days, or even weeks away. In that time it is unlikely that we will see much reprieve for sterling. The fact that the markets have been pricing in a hung parliament scenario for some time now has almost certainly prevented the pound from sliding further against the euro.”
“The uncertainty surrounding the next government has simply compounded pressure on sterling, and against the dollar it is continuing to drop. With the ongoing crisis in the eurozone and its longer-term ramifications also in focus, we are not too optimistic about sterling’s short term prospects,” continues Higgins.
Sterling is currently trading just above 1.15 against the euro and it could begin to bounce back in the latter parts of next week should the coalition talks prove fruitful. Against the US currency, the pound is now nearing $1.46 and there could be further mileage in this drop should the US release positive job numbers today.
Wednesday, 28 April 2010
Greek ruins: bonds at junk status
In a move that came as no surprise to the markets, Standard & Poor’s have cut the credit rating of both Greece and Portugal.
With the yield charged by investors to hold Greek bonds still rising and default fears failing to ebb, S&P reduced Greek debt to “junk” status. Portugal also suffered a downgrade, with S&P maintaining a negative outlook, as the troubles in Greece show signs of spreading.
Investors are fearful that the problems in Greece are spreading to other peripheral nations; Portugal is looking set as the next target. Bond yields swiftly rose following the country’s credit downgrade and are continuing to do so.
Duncan Higgins, senior analyst at Caxton FX comments, “Clearly the danger for European officials is that the fiscal turmoil in the eurozone will spin out of their control. It now appears that Portugal is treading a precariously similar line to Greece.”
A report today suggests that the IMF may increase its share of financial aid to Greece by €10 billion euros from the current €15 billion euros already agreed. This does seem to have helped calm the markets momentarily and stemmed the euros losses. Focus heavily remains on the sustainability of the bailout programme. After two months of negotiations, investors want clarification that the conditions agreed will be sufficient to cover Greece’s debt obligations.
Greece has immediate debt obligations of €8.5 billion due May 19th, and the market is extremely wary that it may not meet these in time. Conditions of the bailout are still to be finalised and Germany, the main EU contributor, is acutely aware of the growing opposition to putting taxpayer’s money on the line in Greece.
“There is a risk that the market may start to bet against all heavily indebted eurozone nations, which could lead to a real crisis for the single currency. There is a lot resistance supporting the euro from sliding further against the dollar, with the price already at a one-year low. With EU talks as yet failing to show any positive results and fears quickly spreading, we anticipate a move to $1.25 in the next month,” continues Higgins.
The weakness in the euro is also spilling over to the sterling / US dollar rate. With investors buying back the safer currency, the greenback is gaining across the board. The pound is currently trading at a three-week low against the greenback. With a positive statement expected from the Fed this evening, we now expect to see sterling below $1.51 in the near term.
With the yield charged by investors to hold Greek bonds still rising and default fears failing to ebb, S&P reduced Greek debt to “junk” status. Portugal also suffered a downgrade, with S&P maintaining a negative outlook, as the troubles in Greece show signs of spreading.
Investors are fearful that the problems in Greece are spreading to other peripheral nations; Portugal is looking set as the next target. Bond yields swiftly rose following the country’s credit downgrade and are continuing to do so.
Duncan Higgins, senior analyst at Caxton FX comments, “Clearly the danger for European officials is that the fiscal turmoil in the eurozone will spin out of their control. It now appears that Portugal is treading a precariously similar line to Greece.”
A report today suggests that the IMF may increase its share of financial aid to Greece by €10 billion euros from the current €15 billion euros already agreed. This does seem to have helped calm the markets momentarily and stemmed the euros losses. Focus heavily remains on the sustainability of the bailout programme. After two months of negotiations, investors want clarification that the conditions agreed will be sufficient to cover Greece’s debt obligations.
Greece has immediate debt obligations of €8.5 billion due May 19th, and the market is extremely wary that it may not meet these in time. Conditions of the bailout are still to be finalised and Germany, the main EU contributor, is acutely aware of the growing opposition to putting taxpayer’s money on the line in Greece.
“There is a risk that the market may start to bet against all heavily indebted eurozone nations, which could lead to a real crisis for the single currency. There is a lot resistance supporting the euro from sliding further against the dollar, with the price already at a one-year low. With EU talks as yet failing to show any positive results and fears quickly spreading, we anticipate a move to $1.25 in the next month,” continues Higgins.
The weakness in the euro is also spilling over to the sterling / US dollar rate. With investors buying back the safer currency, the greenback is gaining across the board. The pound is currently trading at a three-week low against the greenback. With a positive statement expected from the Fed this evening, we now expect to see sterling below $1.51 in the near term.
Friday, 23 April 2010
Weak GDP figures halt sterling’s rally
This morning’s long awaited GDP figure has revealed that the UK economy only grew by 0.2% in the first three months of 2010.
Even though the percentage shows a continued move away from recession, market consensus was that GDP would be 0.4%. The pound slipped back half a cent against the euro in the immediate aftermath, falling from this morning’s high above 1.16.
Duncan Higgins, senior analyst at Caxton FX commented, “Market data this week has been encouraging for the UK and so this figure will certainly come as a disappointment. It also reveals that the economic recovery has slowed since the last quarter of 2009 when the economy grew by 0.4%. There may be revisions, but it is clear that Britain’s recovery is still set to be protracted, significantly lagging other G7 economies. ”
The data could also have a notable impact on the upcoming election, with each party looking to benefit.
“It works in favour of the Conservatives who can highlight the continued weakness of the recovery under a Labour government. However, Brown may try and work it to his advantage, emphasising the danger of implementing spending cuts before the recovery is fully cemented,” explains Higgins.
The market has understandably taken sterling lower in the wake of the release. However, movement has not been significant since the market may be anticipating an upward revision. The estimate of economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2009 was revised up from 0.1% to 0.4%.
Duncan Higgins adds, “Given the run against the euro this week, there was always a risk that a weak GDP would trigger profit taking. However, with the situation in Greece growing ever more precarious, the pound is unlikely to slip sharply in the near term.”
The pound is currently holding above €1.15 against the euro. Latest reports suggest that Greece will request activation of the EU/IMF package later today, which may offer slender support. Against the US dollar, the pound is not dropping sharply, with the price holding in the mid 1.53s.
Even though the percentage shows a continued move away from recession, market consensus was that GDP would be 0.4%. The pound slipped back half a cent against the euro in the immediate aftermath, falling from this morning’s high above 1.16.
Duncan Higgins, senior analyst at Caxton FX commented, “Market data this week has been encouraging for the UK and so this figure will certainly come as a disappointment. It also reveals that the economic recovery has slowed since the last quarter of 2009 when the economy grew by 0.4%. There may be revisions, but it is clear that Britain’s recovery is still set to be protracted, significantly lagging other G7 economies. ”
The data could also have a notable impact on the upcoming election, with each party looking to benefit.
“It works in favour of the Conservatives who can highlight the continued weakness of the recovery under a Labour government. However, Brown may try and work it to his advantage, emphasising the danger of implementing spending cuts before the recovery is fully cemented,” explains Higgins.
The market has understandably taken sterling lower in the wake of the release. However, movement has not been significant since the market may be anticipating an upward revision. The estimate of economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2009 was revised up from 0.1% to 0.4%.
Duncan Higgins adds, “Given the run against the euro this week, there was always a risk that a weak GDP would trigger profit taking. However, with the situation in Greece growing ever more precarious, the pound is unlikely to slip sharply in the near term.”
The pound is currently holding above €1.15 against the euro. Latest reports suggest that Greece will request activation of the EU/IMF package later today, which may offer slender support. Against the US dollar, the pound is not dropping sharply, with the price holding in the mid 1.53s.
Thursday, 22 April 2010
Sterling gains after public borrowing figures exceed forecasts
Although official figures confirmed the 2009/10 fiscal year as the worst since records began, sterling has held onto this morning’s gains.
Data released earlier, revealed that the government borrowed a further £23.5 billion in March, beating market forecasts of £24.1 billion. This translates to government net borrowing for the year at a record high of £163.4 billion. However, this falls below the amount that Alistair Darling predicted in his pre Budget report, giving Labour a lift after yesterday showed a rise in unemployment.
UK retail sales were also released this morning, posting an increase of 0.4% in March, below market consensus, which called for a rise of 0.7% on the month. Although this was disappointing, February’s figure was revised up by 0.4%, offsetting the negative sentiment.
Duncan Higgins, senior analyst at Caxton FX says, “The pound has managed to hold its ground this morning despite the weak borrowing figures. The market has taken the broader view that the government’s book is not in as quite a dire state as the pre Budget Report had us believe.”
The reaction to the poor retails sales has been relatively muted with the market focused on the UK’s first quarter economic growth due tomorrow morning.
“The data is expected to show that the economy grew by 0.4% in the three months through March. The risks look to be on the upside, with a string of strong figures from the UK buoying expectations. At present the market appears to have sidelined election worries, and should GDP fall in line with forecasts we could see sterling reach higher,” continues Higgins.
Currently the pound is consolidating above 1.15 against the euro and 1.54 against the dollar, though its upward climb has slowed.
Data released earlier, revealed that the government borrowed a further £23.5 billion in March, beating market forecasts of £24.1 billion. This translates to government net borrowing for the year at a record high of £163.4 billion. However, this falls below the amount that Alistair Darling predicted in his pre Budget report, giving Labour a lift after yesterday showed a rise in unemployment.
UK retail sales were also released this morning, posting an increase of 0.4% in March, below market consensus, which called for a rise of 0.7% on the month. Although this was disappointing, February’s figure was revised up by 0.4%, offsetting the negative sentiment.
Duncan Higgins, senior analyst at Caxton FX says, “The pound has managed to hold its ground this morning despite the weak borrowing figures. The market has taken the broader view that the government’s book is not in as quite a dire state as the pre Budget Report had us believe.”
The reaction to the poor retails sales has been relatively muted with the market focused on the UK’s first quarter economic growth due tomorrow morning.
“The data is expected to show that the economy grew by 0.4% in the three months through March. The risks look to be on the upside, with a string of strong figures from the UK buoying expectations. At present the market appears to have sidelined election worries, and should GDP fall in line with forecasts we could see sterling reach higher,” continues Higgins.
Currently the pound is consolidating above 1.15 against the euro and 1.54 against the dollar, though its upward climb has slowed.
Wednesday, 21 April 2010
Positive UK jobless figures buoys sterling’s recent rally
There has been more positive data from the UK this morning with the UK claimant count falling by 32,900 in March.
The forecast amongst experts was for a drop of just 7,500. The claimant count measure of unemployment for February was also revised. This showed 40,100 fewer people claiming, against an original reading of 32,500. Putting a slight dent on the figures, the overall rate of unemployment actually rose back to 8.0%, having held at 7.8% for the past three months.
The data has given sterling another boost this morning and it is currently trading around half cent up on the day against both the euro and the US dollar.
Duncan Higgins, senior analyst at Caxton FX comments, “Sterling is currently enjoying a positive run and the surprisingly steep fall in the number of Britons claiming benefit has further improved sentiment. Importantly, the figures raise expectations for a strong reading of economic growth in the first quarter, with all eyes on this data due Friday.”
“The employment data is important not only for the economy but also for its political ramifications. Recent polls have showed the Conservatives edging ahead once again, though this run of positive numbers from the UK could play into Labour’s hands,” continues Higgins
Duncan Higgins adds, “Should the data this week continue to point to an improving rate of recovery in the UK, we could see sterling near €1.16 and $1.55 by the week end.”
The minutes from the Bank of England latest policy meeting were also released this morning. As expected they revealed a unanimous decision among the members to keep policy unchanged. All members agreed that the events of the past month had not been sufficient enough to substantially alter their views of the medium-term outlook for inflation and activity.
The forecast amongst experts was for a drop of just 7,500. The claimant count measure of unemployment for February was also revised. This showed 40,100 fewer people claiming, against an original reading of 32,500. Putting a slight dent on the figures, the overall rate of unemployment actually rose back to 8.0%, having held at 7.8% for the past three months.
The data has given sterling another boost this morning and it is currently trading around half cent up on the day against both the euro and the US dollar.
Duncan Higgins, senior analyst at Caxton FX comments, “Sterling is currently enjoying a positive run and the surprisingly steep fall in the number of Britons claiming benefit has further improved sentiment. Importantly, the figures raise expectations for a strong reading of economic growth in the first quarter, with all eyes on this data due Friday.”
“The employment data is important not only for the economy but also for its political ramifications. Recent polls have showed the Conservatives edging ahead once again, though this run of positive numbers from the UK could play into Labour’s hands,” continues Higgins
Duncan Higgins adds, “Should the data this week continue to point to an improving rate of recovery in the UK, we could see sterling near €1.16 and $1.55 by the week end.”
The minutes from the Bank of England latest policy meeting were also released this morning. As expected they revealed a unanimous decision among the members to keep policy unchanged. All members agreed that the events of the past month had not been sufficient enough to substantially alter their views of the medium-term outlook for inflation and activity.
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